What do stock markets predict?

“Russian invasion of Ukraine begins.” This message from a British newspaper on my smartphone was the first thing I saw on the morning of February 24, 2022. This is exactly a year ago.

war in Europe. Then unimaginable. Reality today. The first big shock is over. The horror remains. We all live with it.

The economy lives with it. 78,000 Ukrainians have fled to Switzerland since the start of the war. One in seven found a job. 23 percent are currently looking for work. Meanwhile, the country’s unemployment rate stands at 2.2 percent – almost full employment.

Vitaly Stasiv (31 years old) lives with him. Last spring he fled to Switzerland with his wife and three children. His parents, grandparents stayed in Ukraine. He worries every day, checks the news. He picks up the phone every time their city is hit by missiles. But with the Shtasiv, everyday life in Switzerland is back. He takes German courses and teaches martial arts in Zurich.

The stock market lives with it. The war, the energy crisis and the associated uncertainties have long affected share prices. Now the focus is not on the struggle in Ukraine, but on the struggle of national banks against inflation. Stock brokers don’t have a crystal ball. They still expect a long war in Ukraine.

Even the Russians live with it. The sanctions imposed by the West have so far had less of an impact than expected. The Russian population still has to tighten their belts. Food is getting more and more expensive. Wage payments are partially omitted. But there is no uprising. People who have fallen into the trap of the Kremlin’s propaganda machine are left behind by Putin.

Samuel Schumacher also lives with it. Our war reporter at Blick. My editorial neighbor. A valued colleague for almost ten years. He has been to Ukraine three times since the beginning of the war. Once he was nearly hit by a rocket when he was reporting at the front. When he returns to Switzerland, he always has something to say. His stories are thought provoking.

Yes, life goes on. Despite the war. Samuel Schumacher will become a father for the first time in these days and hours. This spring, Vitaliy Stasiv will represent Switzerland at international jiu-jitsu competitions.

On this sad anniversary, an insight remains: there is war in Europe – and we live with it. What else should we do?

Source: Blick