Increase in overnight forecast: Economists expect a good tourist season

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Economists at the economic research institute assume overnight stays for the upcoming summer season to reach 22.5 million, up 3 percent from the previous year, according to a statement Wednesday. Above all, the return of travelers from Asia should give Swiss vacation destinations a boost.

That’s why BAK Economics’ forecasts are a little more cautious than KOF’s economic research center at ETH Zurich, which was released last week. KOF, on the other hand, expects a 5 percent increase in overnight stays during the summer months.

BAK Economy Tourism Project Manager Benjamin Studer said that the main reasons for the overall positive outlook are the recovery and catch-up effects in the long-distance markets. A significant increase of 37 percent can be expected in overnight stays. Demand from India, Japan and the US is likely to increase particularly strongly as travel restrictions are lifted.

The return of guests from China may be delayed. “The frequent absence of travel documents, the limited number of visas and bottlenecks in the transport system prevent a full recovery in the short term despite the lifted restrictions,” Studer said. Due to the lack of staff and the already high occupancy rate of hotels, the return of Chinese tourists to pre-crisis levels in the summer will be difficult for the local industry to withstand.

Demand from European markets is likely to weaken somewhat. Here, inflation, the strong Swiss franc and the weak economy will reduce the desire to take a vacation in Switzerland. Only the UK can be expected to have a positive impact on the number of overnight stays this summer compared to the previous year.

According to BAK experts, domestic tourism will not be able to fully maintain its high level in previous years this season. Studer said the drop would be noticeable, but not very large with the expected minus 7 percent. With just over 11 million overnight stays, domestic tourism is still well above 2019 levels.

It is estimated that the return of long-distance travelers will also stimulate demand in cities in the summer of 2023. Here, too, the numbers are expected to rise above pre-crisis levels again, which will largely close the gap with the Alpine regions and the rest of the country during the crisis.

(SDA)

Source :Blick