Record summer or recession?: Swiss tourism misses Chinese guests

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Are the Chinese coming or not? Swiss tourism is divided on this: the economic research center at ETH Zurich (KOF) released an enthusiastic forecast Thursday.

He predicts a record year. KOF expects an increase of 1.2 million overnight stays for the summer season alone, an increase of 5 percent over the previous year. For the year as a whole, KOF economists forecast an increase of 3.9 million overnight stays (+10.5 percent).

This rise is due to two developments: strong domestic demand and the return of foreign tourists “especially from China”.

Long visa waiting times

Only: Tourism marketing organization Switzerland Tourism (ST) sees it completely differently. “We do not at all share KOF’s assessment of the Chinese tourist return and overall growth forecast,” ST spokesman Markus Berger told Blick.

ST expects the Chinese to spend 924,000 overnights in Switzerland by the end of 2023, which is about 50 percent of the 2019 level. As KOF wrote, there will be no “return to normalcy among Chinese tourists” until the end of 2023. “We think our own estimate is optimistic,” Berger says. It does not expect demand from China to fully recover until 2025.

Berger cites long waiting times for the issuance of passports and visas in China, the significantly reduced number of flights between China and Switzerland compared to the pre-pandemic period, and “capacity problems” as reasons for the slow return. He sees the latter not in Switzerland, but with Chinese tour operators who have not booked hotel beds in Switzerland for travel offers. Berger notes that direct bookings from China are better than ever.

“Anyone waiting for the return of Chinese tourists is ignoring the fact that growth in China has only slightly recovered and the weak Chinese yuan against the dollar is weakening the purchasing power of Chinese tourists abroad,” said Yong Chen, professor of marketing and economics. EHL Hospitality Business School.

Switzerland travel abroad

Berger also believes KOF’s forecast of 10 percent growth for the full year is too high. “I don’t know how KOF finds such numbers.” Swiss Tourism expects to reach 2019 levels again in 2023. Thanks to the positive response from North America, Gulf countries and Southeast Asia, 85% of 2019 demand will come from distant markets. Thanks to the continued strong domestic market, the overall result is positive – but not at a record level.

While home tourism is still strong, Swiss Tourism also notices a slowdown: “Demand in Switzerland is still well above 2019, but already weaker than 2022.” This means that the Swiss are making more bookings from abroad again.

Berger emphasizes that Swiss Tourism is fundamentally very optimistic about the further development of guest numbers. But he doesn’t want to talk about the record.

Source :Blick