For the upcoming winter season, BAK economists expect overnight stays to rise to 16.4 million, a 13 percent increase compared to last winter, which was partially affected by the corona restrictions, as they announced on Thursday. More and more guests are expected from abroad and, in turn, from Switzerland, to the Swiss resorts.
BAK Economics’ prospects underline assumptions made almost two weeks ago by KOF, the economic research center at ETH Zurich. KOF is also optimistic about winter tourism, with around 17 million overnight stays.
Benjamin Studer, Project Manager for Tourism at BAK Economics, said that winter will be characterized by post-corona pandemic catch-up and catch-up effects and continued high domestic demand among foreign guests. Households have more savings for the holidays. And Switzerland is perceived as a country that decides on mild restrictions in case of a wave of infections. This offers travelers security planning.
But there are also a number of factors hindering tourism demand. According to BAK Economics, these include the energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine war, inflation and economic slowdown. Also, the strong Swiss franc makes stays more expensive for guests from abroad, while holidays abroad become more attractive to Swiss people.
In addition, international tourism is still suffering in the wake of the corona pandemic and the Ukraine conflict. According to BAK experts, almost no tourists from China or Russia will travel to Switzerland for winter holidays, as in the summer. High airfares have also hampered demand from other long-haul markets, while business tourism has been slow to recover.
Multiple negative factors are likely to weigh on the travel business in Switzerland by summer 2023, according to BAK Economics. A return of overnight stays in Germany to pre-crisis level is therefore probably not possible before the winter of 2023/24 at the earliest, although it may be seen earlier in some months.
Last summer, the number of overnight stays approached the pre-crisis level of 22 million. As a result, the number of overnight stays remained only 3 percent below 2019. The biggest growth spurt came from the USA. However, the number of guests from England, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany also increased rapidly.
When it comes to domestic guests, the tourism industry had to accept a 1.1 million night stay (-8%) drop after the summer of 2021. However, domestic demand was still almost a fifth higher than in 2019. The lack of Chinese and Russian tourists in long-distance markets meant that more than a third of the pre-corona level was missed.
Cities have benefited more from the recent recovery in tourism as they have suffered more from the Corona crisis. Meanwhile, the still good domestic demand supports the number of hostels in the alpine regions. Overall, the non-hotel industry has gained prominence: According to Studer, camping, holiday apartments and community accommodation are benefiting from the growing need for vacations in nature. On the other hand, hotels in cities hope, among other things, that Chinese tourists return.
(SDA)