Heating could become expensive for a quarter of Swiss: The next price shock for natural gas is imminent

weather factor

What is the risk of gas shortages this winter? According to the Swiss Gas Industry Association, it is still too early to make things clear: “Even if the situation has calmed down now, the issue of security of supply will occupy us not only next winter, but also next winter.” years that follow,” explains spokesman Thomas Hegglin.

The most important factor is the weather. If the winter is as harsh as it is hot in the summer, things can heat up. Gas storage facilities in Germany and elsewhere are filled to the brim, which is rare at this time of year. However, if consumption increases due to low temperatures or if gas is needed for electricity generation (for example, in case of temporary shutdown of French nuclear power plants), the storage tanks are quickly emptied.

In addition, 15 percent of the total volume of gas from Russian sources still flows into Europe; liquid gas through pipelines on the one hand and newly built LNG terminals on the other. The risk of Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin completely shutting down the gas tap continues.

How do emergency supplies get to Switzerland?

Another problem: Switzerland’s emergency gas supply is stored at storage facilities in Germany, France or Italy. “It is still critical that gas supplied by the Swiss gas industry can actually be transported to Switzerland in a crisis situation,” Hegglin says.

As a result, an agreement was negotiated with France providing for the supply of Western Switzerland. However, it is still important for the federal government to intensify talks between Germany and Italy so that an intergovernmental agreement can be reached as soon as possible.

Uneasiness in the markets is increasing, prices are moving more volatile, winter is approaching: “Fluctuating prices in the spot and futures markets reflect uncertainties about supply security,” says Hegglin.

Small cause, big impact

Liechtenstein Vice-President Bank’s energy expert Jérôme Mäser (30) also urges caution: “Price turbulence can be expected, especially when demand rises drastically during the winter months, when there are global supply bottlenecks, or when the EU stops imports from Russia altogether. ”

In Europe, prices don’t even have to spiral out of control: “Even if Europe doesn’t buy gas from Australia, a single threat of strikes at three Australian liquefied gas plants is enough. Such supply disruptions pose the biggest threat to gas prices in Europe,” says Mäser. . Because if global supply falls, prices skyrocket. Gas customers in Switzerland will feel it too.