The corona autumn wave rolls on – these are the most important questions and answers

The number of corona cases has risen sharply in the past week. Last week there were 16,826, now there are 25,134 laboratory-confirmed cases – that’s an increase of about 50 percent. The 7-day incidence of new infections in Switzerland is currently 289.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and thus lower than neighboring Germany (414.5), France (494.6), Italy (412.5) and Austria ( 968.8).

However, the local infection numbers are unlikely to reflect reality. After a corona infection, many people report that they have not taken a PCR test. After all, a quick test usually works immediately. This means that these cases are not included in the official corona statistics of the BAG. Taking into account the overall test fatigue and the high positivity rate of 36 percent, it can be assumed that the number of unreported infections is high.

The trend towards an increase in the viral load is also reflected in the wastewater. Monitoring by the water research institute Eawag has shown significantly more Sars-CoV-2 in the waste water of the sewage treatment plants Werdholzli ZH, Altenrhein SG and Chur in recent days.

The number of hospital admissions also rose by 36 percent to 290 hospital admissions. The last time there were that many was early August. For example, the occupancy rate of hospitals remains stable at a low level. Covid patients currently make up 3.9 percent in intensive care units and 4.1 percent of all hospitalized patients. The Swiss hospital beds are currently 81.5 percent occupied, those in the intensive care units 73.5 percent.

That is still unclear. Since December 2021, the omicron variant of the Sars-CoV-2 virus has been responsible for almost all infections in Switzerland and worldwide. But not all ommicrons are the same: after BA.1 and BA.2, the subline BA.5 has been dominant since June. The wave of infections it caused caused a large number of cases in the summer of 2022, but led to significantly lower use of intensive care units by Covid 19 patients than previous waves.

However, new variants are already on the way, as viruses are constantly mutating. This is the only way they can escape antibodies formed from previous infections and survive at all. The WHO is currently tracking more than 230 descendants of Omicron. The researchers are currently most concerned with the subvariants BA.2.75.2, BJ.1 and BQ.1.1, all of which have many mutations in the spike protein. This allows them to better evade the human immune system.

BA.2.75.2 and BJ.1 are both sub-variants of BA.2 and have so far appeared mainly in India and Austria respectively, while BQ.1.1 is a sub-line of BA.5 and is emerging in the UK. The researchers are currently not in agreement on which variant will ultimately prevail. While Germany’s federal health minister Karl Lauterbach predicted in mid-September that BA.2.75.2 would be the next dominant variant, Swiss biochemist Cornelius Römer believes BQ.1.1 is likely to have even better conditions.

The head of the Evolution of Viruses and Bacteria research group at the University of Basel agrees. BQ.1.1 shows “a similar immune escape and mutations in similar positions” to BA.2.75.2, Richard Neher explains to “Focus”, explaining that recently published studies from China and Sweden have shown that BQ.1.1 is derived from human however, antibodies are much less recognized.

This indicates an autumn wave with high numbers of infections. How much this affects our daily lives depends mainly on how high the immune escape of the dominant variant really will be.

The number of vaccinations administered in Switzerland has fallen sharply since March. No wonder: in the public perception, the coronavirus has only played a minor role since the beginning of April and the lifting of all measures with the return to normal.

However, with the increasing number of cases, the topic of vaccination is becoming more topical again. Already on July 5, the Federal Commission on Vaccination (EKIF) recommended a second booster vaccination for people over 80 with a weakened immune system. Demand remained low, however: by October 1, only 23 percent of over-80s had received their booster a second time.

The advice for 65 to 80-year-olds followed on 9 September – from 10 October this age group can also receive a second free booster. Anyone infected with the coronavirus or who has only recently received a boost will have to wait four months.

According to the current state of knowledge, according to the BAG, the chance of a serious illness this autumn for all people between 16 and 64 years without risk factors is low. According to the BAG, the vaccination does not protect against infection with Sars-CoV-2, but against a severe course of the disease for about three months.

A second booster vaccination is therefore especially recommended for people who work in acute and long-term care or who care for people who are at particular risk professionally or privately. For those who have not yet been vaccinated, a single vaccination is recommended this fall.

Three new coronavirus vaccines have been available since September, adapted to the ommicron variant BA.1 and the subtypes BA.4 and BA.5. The BAG announced in September that it was still possible to vaccinate with the earlier monovalent mRNA vaccine.

According to the BAG, more than 97 percent of the population in Switzerland has antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. 70.3 percent have been vaccinated against the coronavirus at least once: 44.4 percent have been vaccinated three times, 24.9 percent twice and 1.0 percent once. Although Switzerland is just above the European average, it is well below the percentage of its immediate neighbors Germany (77.7 percent), Italy (85.82 percent), France (80.94 percent) and Austria (77.1 percent) .

For the time being, no measures are planned to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. We have been back to normal since April. In such a case, the epidemic law stipulates that the cantons are responsible for ordering measures. The federal government, on the other hand, has only limited powers – for example in terms of information and recommendations, as well as measures when entering and leaving the country.

Until the spring of 2023, however, we will be in what is known as a “transition phase with heightened vigilance and responsiveness”. The former structures (testing, vaccination, contact tracing) must be preserved to the extent that the cantons and the federal government can react quickly to new developments. It is therefore quite possible that wearing a face mask in public transport and indoors will soon be an issue again.

The BAG also recommends adherence to the following basic principles: