New study published: Climate change raises risk of crop shortages

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The researchers also explored what changes can be expected in the course of climate change. The group, led by Kai Kornhuber of Columbia University in New York, published their results in the journal Nature Communications.

“Concurrent crop failures in key growing regions pose a systemic risk because the correspondingly rising food prices can lead to conflict and malnutrition in import-dependent countries,” the study authors wrote. They targeted wheat and corn. About two-thirds of world production comes from the regions of North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, India and East Asia.

Areas of high and low pressure, which sometimes remain virtually motionless for weeks and therefore cause droughts or heavy rainfall, are usually caused by certain constellations in the jet stream. This can create large waves called Rossby waves. If these do not move and remain stationary, high and low pressure areas can remain over an area for a long time.

The team searched historical data (from 1960 to 2014) for events where multiple granaries had low yields associated with Rossby waves. Using multiple models, he determined that wheat and corn harvests were up to 7 percent lower in East Asia, 6 percent in North America, and 3 percent lower in Eastern Europe during seven-peak Rossby waves.

In model simulations of future development (from 2045 to 2099, with a very strong increase in carbon dioxide emissions), the risk of high crop loss increases, especially when North America and East Asia are affected by the Seven Mountains Rossby waves. In the case of five mountain Rossby waves, the probability of high crop losses increases if North America and Eastern Europe on the one hand and India and Western Europe on the other are affected.

(SDA)

Source : Blick