Europe is not only addicted to Russian gas, but also to Russian diesel. Much more diesel is consumed than European refineries produce. In Europe, too, a lot of diesel is made from Russian oil.

Due to the war in Ukraine, oil and diesel will soon no longer be allowed to be imported into the European Union, which is why fears of a diesel shortage are growing.

Diesel is already more expensive at the pump than petrol, where the reverse has been the case for many years. Since the number of private diesel drivers is falling sharply, the price increase is hitting the transport sector and the economy in particular. The consumer pays for this indirectly because the high diesel prices are reflected in the product price.

As such, there is enough oil in the world and it should therefore be possible to produce enough diesel. The shortage comes as many refiners have already cut imports of Russian oil and diesel in anticipation of the sanctions. Not only Europe, but also the USA are now trying to import diesel from other parts of the world.

Diesel from the various refineries in Rotterdam is often made with so-called Ural oil from Russia. It is not easy for refiners to find comparable oil on the world market or to adapt their refining processes. Oil companies around the world are now scouring the market for alternatives to Russian oil and diesel.

BP operates one of the largest refineries in Europe in Rotterdam and produces one million liters of diesel per hour. The company immediately stopped importing Russian oil after the war in Ukraine, says Karen de Lathouder, CEO of BP Netherlands. The refinery in Rotterdam could switch quite easily, but it’s more complicated for many other companies.

“It is difficult to completely switch from one crude oil to another in a refinery because each oil has a slightly different composition. The refineries are designed specifically for a specific blend of oils, and that’s what the factory runs best with. When that mix changes, it doesn’t work as well anymore,” says De Lathouder.

Does the flame come out of the tube?

Because it will still take some time to make these alternatives suitable for filling stations, the Association of Service Stations (BETA) assumes that diesel will no longer be available in some places in the coming months. “We know that supply from Russia is faltering while demand is high,” says BETA’s Tim Schoenmakers. “That means there will inevitably be droughts within months.”

From December 5, crude oil may no longer be imported from Russia, and from February 5 next year this will also apply to petroleum products such as diesel. In order to prevent a possible diesel shortage, the Central Agency for Stock Formation of Petroleum Products (COVA) has stored 550 kilotons of diesel, which should be available to the Netherlands for 90 days. On behalf of the Minister for Climate and Energy, COVA provides strategic oil stocks to be used in the event of shortages to prevent economic damage.

The industry association of big oil companies (VEMOBIN) is pleased that the government has built a camp, but for the time being it assumes that there is no need to address it. “I don’t expect a shortage of diesel, especially not in the Netherlands, because we produce three to four times more than we use here. The situation in Europe is worrying, we see that stocks are very low and expect a reduction in diesel imports, which will lead to greater shortages,” says Erik Klooster, Director of VEMOBIN.

Climate and Energy Minister Rob Jetten has put a large number of oil sector experts to work to draw up a contingency plan before December if next year’s strategic stockpile proves to be insufficient. The emergency plan must state who is entitled to diesel in the event of a shortage and in what order. The plan must ensure that emergency services such as police, fire and ambulance are supplied with fuel. In addition, other important sectors must be supplied with diesel, for example to supply supermarkets with groceries.