WTO sees negative risks for global trade in 2024

The Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, assured this Monday that the international geopolitical situation has caused the international organization to forecast “downside risks” in world trade for 2024, which will be below Officially planned 3.3%.

“We continue to review our trade growth forecasts and believe they will be below the forecast growth of 3.3% for this year,” the Nigerian-American economist told a press conference on the first day of the 13th Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference.

The head of the WTO pointed out “suppressing aggregate demand” in trade and which is related to the current “conflicts” in the Red Sea, alluding to the attacks of the Yemeni Shiite Houthi rebels who diverted a large part of the ships by a longer route, via the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa).

Also “the phenomenon of climate change in Panama Canal, as well as other things that occur on the supply side. For that reason, we think there are downside risks,” he indicated, although he insisted he could not give an exact number.

He was also keen to point out that some countries are doing “pretty well”, such as the United States and India.

Challenges

Okonjo-Iweala also warned this Monday that the world is in a “difficult” situation and called for the reform and revitalization of the international organization.

“When we thought the world was looking naughty in mid-May 2022, when we were leaving slowly from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine shook food and energy security, today we are in an even more difficult situation”, said the economist.

He noted that the increase in the price of food, energy, fertilizers and other essential products continues to “burden the purchasing power of the population”.

This “new source of delays and inflationary pressures” offers a “real-time reminder of the risks posed to global trade and manufacturing by security concerns and the climate crisis,” he noted, recalling that people are “anxious about the future and that’s how it felt at the polls this year,” just as will happen in 2024 with dozens of countries holding elections.

Okonjo-Iweala said that “without cooperation” on trade, we will be moving towards an “increasingly fragmented” global economy, making these priorities “more difficult and more expensive, and in some cases, impossible to achieve.”