The channel crisis will be felt in the pockets of consumers in a year

An explosion in the prices of maritime transport, due to the reduction in the use of the Suez Canal, due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Panama Canaldue to the drought this country is suffering, will hit consumers’ pockets within a year, a new economic study shows.

The situation on both sea passages crucial to world trade contributes to serious disruptions in transit through the Black Sea as a result of the war in Ukraine, which has changed the global supply of grains and derivatives, fertilizers and oil, in a particularly serious way. during the first year of the conflict, although disruptions continue to this day.

According to a study by the UN Agency for Trade and Development (UNCTAD), published today, the temporary suspension of transit through the Suez Canal (the sea passage connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea) by major players in the maritime sector has caused weekly container ship transits to fall by 67% compared to their peak.

In the meantime, iTotal transits through the Panama Canal are down 49% from their all-time high.

This route, which is currently crucial for communication between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, has been greatly affected in recent months by water shortages, a situation that experts link to climate change and which worries about its long-term impact. term in global supply chain.

According to calculations made by the organization’s experts, the increase since last November in the average container spot transport was the largest weekly ever recorded, with the peak an increase of $500 per container in the last week of December.

This trend has continued and, for example, container freight rates from Shanghai have more than doubled since the beginning of December (+122%), tripled for those going to Europe (+256%) and are above average (+16%) when they go towards the west coast of the United States, although they do not pass through the Suez Canal.

If these obstacles to the maritime transport of goods continue, experts predict a threat to global supply chains and delivery delays, leading to cost increase and the inflation that people will feel more or less a year from now.

Ships generally avoid the Suez and Panama Canals and seek alternative routes, which means longer distances, higher trading costs and higher insurance premiums.

The environment also suffers from emissions greenhouse gases increase because ships have to cover longer distances at higher speeds to make up for the time lost due to detours.

The report estimates, as an example, that both factors (longer distance and speed) result in a 70% increase in emissions on the Singapore-Rotterdam route.

Panama Canal This is an absolutely critical step for South American countries on the Pacific coast, such as Ecuador, Peru and Chile.whose trade volume depends on this route by 26% in the first case and by 22% in the case of the last two countries.

Meanwhile, East African nations depend on the Suez Canal for their trade, with rates reaching up to 34% for certain countries. The current situation has forced some to opt for a much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of the continent.