Trump’s problems multiply the candidates for the Republican primaries

In 2024, the United States will elect its next president. The Democratic Party accepted the nomination of the president, Joe Bidenexcept surprise, He has a clear path to the presidential elections. Faced with Biden, there are only two alternative Democratic candidacies today. On the Republican side, on the contrary, the list is only increasing. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence could join the five already confirmed candidates in the coming days. And the Republican list could continue to grow; six more conservatives could end up in the primaries. In 2008, eight candidates competed for the Republican nomination. In 2016, there were 12 of them, a if all forecasts had been fulfilled, there would have been 14 in 2024.

This increase results from the decision Supreme Court of the United States from 2010 as part of the lawsuit Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. Then the conservative organization — Citizens United — condemned the regulation of campaign finance before the highest court in the United States. Her sentence, the result of a conservative majority of five votes to four, enabled unlimited spending by organizations and interest groups on election campaigns. The court understood that spending on election campaigns is a manifestation of freedom of expression, protected by the Constitution.

The Supreme Court’s decision overturned centuries-old legislation and favored the creation of Super PACs, independent candidate support organizations that can spend unlimited amounts during campaigns. The appearance of these organizations, allegedly, actually, expanding the selection field. Before the changes, the candidates’ chances depended on the support of the party leadership. Then, unlimited private financing could run the campaign of a candidate with little support among elites (such as Donald Trump in 2016) until the end of the primary election calendar.

Looking ahead to 2024, the large number of candidacies cannot be understood without analyzing the situation of the main candidate, Donald Trump. Previously, it was rare for parties to promote candidacies that threatened the outgoing president’s campaign. The chances of success of candidates for re-election are significantly higher than those who are running for the first time, and this turned the competition in favor of the former.

Changing the electoral landscape

Trump’s candidacy, halfway between an incumbent and a president running for re-election, is weaker than a candidate who has yet to lose. Except, Trump’s overt goals could radically change the electoral landscape. The cases he faces in Georgia (for meddling in the election) and in Washington (for keeping classified documents when he left the White House and for his role in the attack on the Capitol) could put the millionaire out of the running. A trial for the attack on the Capitol, to plead guilty to charges of sedition, even could lead to a ban on holding elected office for a millionaire.

The victory of Donald Trump in 2016 was possible thanks to the combined effect of both factors. On the one hand, it allowed the millionaire to be competitive despite being an outsider, and on the other, it saved him from fighting for the nomination against the outgoing president. Today, the same factors that helped him in 2016 are attracting his rivals.