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State of emergency on the Baltic Sea, parts of the Hanseatic city of Wismar are off limits on Thursday and Friday. Police and security forces cordon off the area around the old wooden harbour. The Baltic Sea Council meets there in the technology centre. Among others, the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) will meet her colleagues from nine other Baltic Sea countries.

The international organization, which was founded more than 30 years ago, was originally intended to bring more peace, security and prosperity to the Baltic Sea region. The topics are more topical than ever. Because the meeting in Wismar is overshadowed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Originally, Russia also belonged to the Council of the Baltic Sea States. After the start of his war of aggression, Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin had to leave him. For centuries, Russian influence in the Baltic region has been an important constant in the great power’s security policy. With the end of the Cold War, it began to decline and now it no longer exists. Last year Sweden and Finland also tried to join NATO. The Baltic Sea is now a NATO sea.

This poses major security problems for Russia. And it puts the region as a whole back at the center of geopolitical tensions.

War on the Baltic Sea Coast

The Baltic Sea has had a busy history, often marked by wars between East and West. There are still numerous mines, chemical weapons and shipwrecks from the Second World War on the seabed. This makes the Baltic Sea one of the dirtiest seas in the world today.

The Baltic Sea was once reserved for fishermen and amber traders. But because of their importance to trade and sea routes, their coasts were disputed early on. It was Russian Tsar Peter the Great – seen as a role model by Putin – who defeated Sweden in the Great Northern War from 1700 to 1721, establishing the Russian Tsarist Empire as a major European power and Russian dominance in the Baltic region.

The Soviet ruler Josef Stalin wanted to extend this dominance in the Winter War from 1939 with his attack on Finland. The Soviet army had to withdraw after fierce resistance from the Finns, but Stalin nevertheless forced a concession from the war opponent: the neutrality of Finland. That only came to an end with Putin’s attack on Ukraine.

After defeating Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union was able to further expand its influence in the Baltic Sea region. The Baltic countries belonged to the great power and Poland and the GDR became Soviet satellite states in the Warsaw Pact. This also made the Baltic Sea an important economic factor for the great power. The Soviet Union processed more than 20 percent of its goods exports here.

Fear of Putin’s Russia

For many countries in the region, Soviet repression and the threat of nuclear energy created a trauma that continues to this day. An example of this is Sweden: in the Swedish vocabulary there is the word “rysskräck”, which, according to the Duden, describes the fear of Russia.

It was the evening of October 28, 1981 that fueled this fear. Swedish fishermen discovered the stranded Soviet submarine S-363 in Gåsefjärden, near the archipelago island of Senoren, about 30 kilometers from the naval port of Karlskrona. As a result, Sweden changed its defense policy, military bases were reactivated and Swedish troops have been back on the strategically important island of Gotland ever since. In October 2014, another incident occurred in Swedish waters. A damaged Russian submarine surfaced near Stockholm. Against the background of the annexation of Crimea by Russia in particular, this aroused renewed fear in Sweden.

But not only Sweden is afraid. For decades, the Baltic states and Poland have warned that Putin is ready to use military means to further his foreign policy goals. That is why they were not included in NATO, as Russia often says. They aspired to join NATO in order to negotiate on an equal footing with Russia in an emergency. Even now people in Estonia say: if you don’t sit down at the table, you will end up on the menu and you will be eaten by Putin.

The developments in the Baltic Sea region after the fall of the Iron Curtain can therefore not be explained by the desire of the West to expand, but by the need for security in the Eastern and Northern European states. Sweden and Finland only decided to join NATO after Putin invaded Ukraine. Accordingly, Putin himself indirectly strengthened the Western military alliance.

NATO controls the Baltic Sea area

The Baltic Sea is now a NATO sea and that naturally also brings new challenges. The Western alliance is now concerned with protecting the sovereign waters of nine NATO member states while securing sea routes in international waters. It was also the explosions of the Nord Stream 2 North Sea pipeline that showed the West how vulnerable pipelines and underwater cables in the Baltic Sea can be.

Putin, on the other hand, is caught in a security policy dilemma. Russia has no more allies on the Baltic Sea and only two approaches: Saint Petersburg and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania. Only the port of Kaliningrad is ice-free all year round – a strategic nightmare for the Kremlin.

Since the beginning of the war, NATO has once again strengthened its presence in the Baltic Sea region. For example, German or French frigates, mine hunters and submarines are active in the Baltic Sea area to secure NATO’s northern flank and to carry out reconnaissance. Recently, the American aircraft carrier “USS Gerald R. Ford” – the world’s largest warship – anchored in the Oslofjord. A show of strength and a signal to Putin that NATO controls the Baltic region.

Dangerous provocations

For many reasons, this should be an eyesore for the Kremlin boss. On the one hand, he sees the Baltic Sea historically in the sphere of influence of Greater Russia – which he believes also includes Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic states. On the other hand, he doesn’t really have anything to oppose NATO’s naval supremacy.

Compared to the Russian land and air forces, the Russian navy is rather weak. Putin’s only aircraft carrier – the “Admiral Kuznetsov” – is under repair and not operational since 2018. However, the Kremlin moved the frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” – perhaps the most modern Russian warship – to the Baltic Sea. In addition, the Russian Navy in St. Petersburg and near Kaliningrad has significant naval and air forces and land-based missile positions that, according to Bundeswehr circles, should be taken seriously.

But Russia is also aware of its current vulnerability in the Baltic Sea region and is responding with threats – mainly nuclear weapons. Putin wants to station some in Belarus, and the Kremlin also threatens to move the weapons of mass destruction to Kaliningrad, although most experts have long assumed they are already stationed there.

Of course, the militarization of the Baltic Sea region also increases the risk of incidents in and above the inland sea. NATO is not impressed by Russian threats. NATO fighter jets regularly intercept Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea. In March 2023, in response to the provocations, the Americans flew two B-1B strategic bombers towards Saint Petersburg until Russian fighter jets intercepted them.

Such military flexes are becoming more common over the Baltic Sea, forcing the Luftwaffe’s alert squads to deploy. So far they have always gone out lightly and without incident. But one thing is clear: Geopolitical tensions threaten peace, including in the Baltic Sea region.