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Tension in Ukraine is high. The Ukrainian army will soon launch a counter-offensive to liberate more territory from the Russian invaders. The pressure on Kiev to succeed is great, because the Ukrainian leadership wants to prove after the Western arms deliveries that they can use the modern systems effectively. But what are the chances of success?

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin is betting he will have more stamina in the conflict than the West and Ukraine. Military and Russia expert Gustav Gressel gives reasons why the West needs a plan for long-term military support for Ukraine and why Russian arms production will not collapse.

The fighting in the war in Ukraine continues, but there is currently little movement on the fronts. Don’t you get tired of the war too?
Gustavus Gressel: No. What must we do? Russia attacked Ukraine, ending the war is not in my hands.

In recent days there have been Ukrainian attacks on targets in Russia, but the announced counter-offensive has not yet started. What is Kiev waiting for?
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is in the preparatory phase. It is currently about tying up Russian troops in certain front sections and forcing them to militarily reinforce certain strips. Ukraine wants to ensure that Russian reserves are parked in the wrong places before the counter-offensive begins. But there are many indications that it will start soon

For example?
For example, more attacks and more activity from Ukraine in the south. It is clear that there are preparations

Ukraine benefited from the element of surprise in their late summer offensive. Why did Kiev make its plans public this time?
Over the past year, however, the offensive in Kherson has been the focus of the media and the Ukrainian attack there has not been as large as expected. How successful Ukraine’s expected counter-offensive will be depends primarily on the tactical skill of the Ukrainian army and also on the luck of the war.

That means?
It is now difficult to predict how successful the counter-offensive will be. Ukraine also has the problem that expectations of the attack are extremely high – in the West and also in Ukraine itself

Can she live up to that expectation?
Probably not. It cannot be assumed that Ukraine will be able to liberate its entire territory with this offensive. But she was able to greatly shorten the front in places by gaining ground. Then the Ukrainian army would need fewer soldiers at the front and would be able to bear the current burden of war better and longer. But we have to wait and see what happens.​

But doesn’t Ukraine now also need more territorial gains through an offensive?
Ukraine wants to prove itself and show that Western supplies with main battle tanks and armored cars are effective. Looking ahead, Kiev wants to justify further support from the West. That creates a certain pressure of expectation. But the armed forces are also under pressure, of course, because after the stories about kidnappings and torture chambers by the Russian army, they do not want to abandon their own population in the occupied territories.

At the same time, Ukraine must also take into account that it does not wear out its weapon systems so quickly. After all, they didn’t get many main battle tanks from the west.
Precisely. It should be clear: the wear and tear of military equipment will increase further during a counter-offensive. The West slightly underestimates this point. We are doing our best to get tanks back to Ukraine, but it’s a bit late. But better late than never.

How strong is Ukraine right now?
It is often seen in the West that we have increased Ukraine’s combat capacity with the tank deliveries, but the first thing we need to do is compensate Ukraine’s losses and wear and tear. There is a misconception in the West that the Ukrainian army would automatically be strengthened by the supplies. It is forgotten that the supply of tanks and ammunition of Soviet design coming from the West has almost dried up

Does the West have a long-term tank supply plan?
Good question, I hope so. Behind the scenes, Defense Secretary Boris Pistorius already appears to be entering into talks with the arms industry. But in many countries and in many capitals, unfortunately, there is no plan

Germany repeatedly draws red lines when it comes to arms deliveries to Ukraine. At first they did not want to supply weapons with which the Ukrainian army could attack Russia, but now the supply of fighter jets is excluded. Does this make sense?
No. I thought those red lines were wrong from the start.

Why?
It is not a good strategy because it communicates to Russia where there are safe zones for the Russian military. In addition, the West will relinquish escalation control if it denies Ukraine certain capabilities

You have to explain that.
If Ukraine receives longer-range cruise missiles from the West, Kiev has promised that Ukraine will not use them to attack targets on Russian territory. That’s the condition. But you could make it clear to Russia that if the Russian military does certain things, that condition will be thrown overboard. This is a way to put pressure on Putin. So these deliveries might prevent escalations, but the West is wary of being pushed in the wrong direction.

Let’s look at Russia. Some military economists predicted the lack of supplies for Putin’s army could be tight by the fall. Is this realistic?
No. I think the Russians can sustain it economically for another two to three years. But it’s hard to predict because things are constantly changing

For example?
Russian missile strikes were initially less as cruise missile production supply chains were interrupted by the sanctions against Russia. The Russian army had emptied their camps and the attacks were slowly becoming less frequent

And then?
The bottlenecks could be overcome through substitution and arms smuggling. This is how Chinese components are used. The Russians are very creative and have a long tradition and a lot of experience in circumventing sanctions with the likes of North Korea or Iran. That’s why I would always be cautious about making predictions about Russian capabilities. The situation can always change.​

Now Russia is once again firing Iskander missiles at Ukrainian cities. Some media viewed it as a sign of weakness that these strategically important missiles are now being used. Do you agree?
No. Russia fired these missiles at the beginning of the war, but at some point supplies ran out. But now the ammunition and production bottlenecks seem to have been partially overcome again. But these missiles have the highest priority in the procurement of Russian weapons, and tank production certainly cannot be derived from Iskander. However, Ukraine and the West can expect that the bottlenecks in the production of main battle tanks and armored vehicles and in the procurement of guided missiles will also be overcome. There, too, there are similar bottlenecks in Russia as with the missiles

Putin is sticking to his war goals because he assumes that Russia will ultimately have the staying power. Does his plan work?
Unfortunately, this option exists. Putin is certainly hoping for Donald Trump and his possible victory in the US presidential election next year. Even when it comes to arms and ammunition supplies, he seems to believe that Russia can produce more than the West in the long run.​

Can Russia do that?
For example, Rheinmetall produces 24 Leopard 2 tanks per year, and Russian war production is said to be able to spit out 250 main battle tanks per year. This production is currently on hold due to supply bottlenecks, but Russia could get these issues under control early next year. The disparity in the production of armored personnel carriers and artillery ammunition is similar. That is behind Putin’s calculation and it will be a bitter struggle for the West

Doesn’t Putin get tired of the war?
You should not underestimate that: Putin wants to ruin the West, that is what the Soviet speaks in him. He expects that capitalism will collapse because of its internal contradictions and that the West will eventually throw in the towel in this conflict.

But there are differences of opinion within the Russian power circle, for example the insults of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin to the military leadership. How high is the current political pressure on Putin?
Prigozhin has not spoken to Putin for a year and feels increasingly marginalized. With such statements he tries to put himself in the foreground again

Prigozhin speaks publicly of a revolution, and eventually he would command 80,000 fighters in his mercenary army. So he seems to have influence.
I also wonder why Prigozhin hasn’t fallen out of a window yet. But there is room in Russia for actors from the national-patriotic camp to criticize the military leadership and parts of the government. Prigozhin never attacks Putin directly, he criticizes the elites, the officials and takes on the rank and file. He walks a fine line between attacking the Russian president and attacking the rest of the system. Putin allows this argument as long as he can rise above it.

Do these quarrels not damage the morale of the Russian soldiers and their confidence in their leadership?
It is unlikely that the soldiers at the front will follow such news. They have other issues, for example direct life support. They see the grievances in their army, but this is nothing new to them

So Putin is still politically firmly in the saddle?
There is currently no information from Moscow, but I would not assume the opposite. (t online)