The war has reached the heart of Russia, expert sure: “Now the war is creeping out”

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The war has arrived in Russia. On Tuesday, the heart of the country – the capital Moscow – was attacked by at least eight large long-range drones. And the attacks continue: Russian news agencies reported renewed drone attacks on the Russian border town of Bryansk on Wednesday morning.

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) blames Ukraine for these attacks. The Kiev government has repeatedly denied these allegations, including in the case of the drone attacks on Moscow. The assumption that Ukraine is behind the attacks is incorrect, but not.

Ukraine is probably behind the attacks

This is the opinion of military expert Ralph D. Thiele (69) of the Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Advice (ISPSW) in Berlin. He rules out a false flag operation by Russia. “Experience shows that it couldn’t have been any other actor.”

For example, US intelligence assumes that the drone attack on the Kremlin in early May was carried out by Ukrainian troops. And Kyrylo Budanov, 37, the director of Ukraine’s military intelligence, on Monday announced retaliation for Russian attacks on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and Ukrainian intelligence headquarters.

Drone attacks on Russian soil are on the rise. But why? Thiele explains: “Ukraine is trying to compensate for combat operations in other areas.” The reason for this, according to Thiele, is the slow delivery of weapons and ammunition from the West. “That is why Ukraine must resort to alternatives.” Such as hybrid warfare, which can also include drone attacks.

By attacking Russia, however, Ukraine could break a promise to the West. The Western allies have given their support to the country – on one condition: Russia must not be attacked. Because people are afraid of the reactions of the Kremlin.

Expert warns of escalating war

Rightly so, thinks Thiele. “We are sliding with our eyes wide open into an escalation of this war.” Because Russia could respond with violent attacks. In an interview on Tuesday night, Putin said: “The attacks may provoke a reaction from Russia. Ukraine should be aware of that.”

It is true that Moscow was probably not attacked with Western weapons. Weapons analysts such as Dmitri Alperovitch suspect on Twitter that the attacks were carried out with Ukrainian UJ-22s. Yet Russia could also blame the West – after all, the Allies also supply technology to Ukraine. Thiele warns: “The war is slowly spreading.”

The West must let “words, not deeds” prevail

In plain language, this means that Russia could soon attack Ukraine’s neighbors. With ‘hybrid campaigns’, as Thiele calls it. What he means by that: attacks on critical infrastructure and disinformation campaigns.

To avoid such an escalation, the West must continue to support Ukraine. After all, according to Thiele, Ukraine currently has the task of defending not only itself, but also the entire West in the understanding of the whole world.

Source: Blick