Study predicts leaps in development with world population shrinking: By the end of this century there will be 1 billion fewer people than today

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The 1972 “Limits to Growth” study by the renowned Club of Rome was considered groundbreaking: according to the study, Earth’s resources could not sustain economic growth and population growth much longer than the year 2100. This glimpse into the future shaped the thinking of generations. The Club of Rome recently commissioned a follow-up study on this topic. The astonishing result: advances in economics and technology would end poverty and overpopulation.

A milestone was reached in November: more than eight billion people live on the planet. But population growth will not continue indefinitely. According to a research report published at the end of March by the environmental network Earth4All, the world’s population is expected to drop below nine billion by 2050.

This new forecast is well below several known population estimates, including those from the United Nations. The population will decrease from a peak of about 8.6 billion people. This is when the world takes a “giant leap” in investment in economic development, education and health. Many of the poorest countries could lift themselves out of extreme poverty. By the turn of the century in 2100, the world’s population will have fallen to seven billion people.

Good and bad news at the same time

The authors argue that other prominent population forecasters often underestimate the importance of rapid economic development. “We know that rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates,” says Norwegian politician and study leader Per Espen Stoknes (56), professor at BI Norwegian Business School. “Fertility rates fall as girls gain access to education and women become economically stronger and have access to better health care.”

The prediction is both good and bad news for humanity: a declining population will alleviate some of Earth’s environmental problems, but it is far from the most important factor in solving them. A declining population would age humanity as a whole and reduce the proportion of people of working age. As a result, young people could become even more involved in the financing of care and pensions.

The research also seems to be based on a lot of wishful thinking: “A good life for everyone is only possible if the extreme consumption of resources by the wealthy elite is reduced,” says Norwegian futurologist and co-author Jorgen Randers (77), who already co-authored author of the Club of Rome growth study. (kes)

Source: Blick