“It’s Time” “It’s Time”

Senior Ukrainian officials hint that the long-awaited counterattack to recapture Russian-held territory will begin soon. The offensive could begin “tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week,” National Security Council secretary Oleksiy Danilov told the BBC. Danilov went on to say that “Kiev can’t go wrong” because it is a historic opportunity “that we shouldn’t miss”.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zalushny, published a video online showing Ukrainian soldiers taking an oath and preparing for battle, writing: “The time has come to take back what is ours. “

There has been speculation for weeks about a Ukrainian counter-offensive. It was announced repeatedly by the Ukrainian side, but without mentioning possible locations or a time. In recent weeks, there have already been several attacks on Russian military depots and infrastructure – sometimes far behind the front line. This has already led to speculation about preparations for a Ukrainian counterattack. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Ukraine’s preparations for the planned spring offensive were “in the final stages”.

However, it cannot be ruled out that the statements from Ukraine are intended to put pressure on and disrupt the Russian military leadership. “Much of what is happening is not happening in public. The purpose of this confusion is clearly to throw Moscow off balance,” CNN journalist Nick Patton Walsh wrote in an analysis a few days ago.

The pressure also comes from another direction. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s Wagner Group, said on Telegram: “I assume the offensive (from the Ukrainians) has begun.” There is an increase in Ukrainian activities, especially “along the borders” in the Bakhmut area. However, Prigozhin’s statements can also be seen as a means of putting pressure on the Russian military leadership. The mercenary chief has repeatedly criticized decisions made in Moscow.

Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak told The Guardian that preparatory operations such as the destruction of Russian depots and supply routes had already begun. “It is a complicated process that is not about a specific day, date or hour,” Mykhailo Podolyak said in the interview. “It is an ongoing process of liberation and certain processes are already taking place, such as destroying supply lines or blowing up depots behind the lines.” The intensity has increased, but it will take a while.

He sees the possibility that Russian partisans could advance on Russian territory with the start of a counter-offensive. A few days ago, paramilitary militias of the Russian Volunteer Corps group crossed the Ukrainian border and advanced towards the Belgorod region. The Russian militias are now apparently back in Ukraine. Podolak said Kiev did nothing to stop the raid because “we deeply sympathize with the protest movements in Russia”.

Military expert Marcus Keupp of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich said on Deutschlandradio that an offensive usually starts with testing the enemy’s weak points and preparatory fire such as artillery and drone strikes.

In the nights leading up to Friday and Saturday, there were repeated reports of isolated drone strikes on Russian territory. There were explosions in the region around Berdiansk. The city is located in the south of Ukraine and is currently occupied by Russia. The port city is located on the Sea of ​​​​Asvo, last year a Russian warship was sunk here in an attack. There were also reports of attacks from occupied Mariupol and Russia’s Belgorod region.

It is up to President Volodymyr Zelensky to decide when and where Ukraine will launch a counter-offensive. It is probably the best kept state secret of the moment. According to the American magazine Politico, even the US does not know the details.

Used sources:

(t-online, when)