The predictions are clear: it is increasingly unlikely that Erdogan will be voted out. This man could secure Trump’s re-election

Historical events are currently taking place in Turkey. All votes in the May 14 elections were counted and none of the three candidates received the required 50 percent of the vote. There will therefore be a second round on Sunday between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

According to the official election results, Erdogan narrowly missed the 50 percent needed to win the election. He came to 49.52 percent. Challenger Kilicdaroglu got almost 45 percent, ATA alliance candidate Sinan Ogan almost 5 percent. Muharrem Ince, who withdrew his candidacy shortly before the elections and thus officially dropped out of the race, still obtained 0.43 percent of the vote.

Predictions for the second round of elections

Contrary to the polls conducted before the presidential election, all new predictions predict Erdogan’s victory. In the latest research of Areda, in which more than 10,000 people were questioned, Erdogan managed to extend his lead again. The Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC) has also changed its methodology due to the large number of incorrect results in the first round of surveys and now estimates an error rate that is included in the election forecast.

The fact that the candidate Ogan, who was eliminated on the first ballot, called on his voters to vote for Erdogan on the second ballot, also speaks for Erdogan's victory.

This is what the predictions looked like for the first vote

Challenger Kilicdaroglu was slightly ahead in most polls before the first round of the presidential election. It is also easy to observe the sharp fall in the vote for Ince when he withdrew his candidacy. While you would expect most Ince votes to go to Kilicdaroglu, they were split fairly evenly between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. Ogan was underestimated by the polls and ended up scoring about two to three percentage points more than predicted in the election.