“The Ukrainians are waiting for the Russians to cross over”

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In recent months, NATO has been supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons and the Ukrainians have also attacked and destroyed parts of Russian infrastructure, such as fuel depots. Objective: Prepare for a major offensive against the Russian invaders.

According to NATO, preparations for the major counter-attack were in their final stages at the end of April. Yevgeny Prigozhin (61), head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group, was expecting an attack by the Ukrainians in mid-May at the time. However, apart from the usual events of the war, there has been no major counter-attack so far.

Successful secrecy

When will the Ukrainians open their “fireworks for the Russians”, as they call the counter-offensive?

“Since the further course of the war depends on the outcome of this offensive, Kiev did not launch it hastily,” said Marcel Berni, 34, strategy expert at the ETH Military Academy. Ukraine is taking its time until the ground has dried and its own troops are trained to use the new Western weapons.

From a Ukrainian point of view, it makes sense to spread conflicting information about the offensive and thus temper expectations. Berni: “Kyiv has so far managed to keep its intentions and preparations secret.”

Wait for the right moment

Berni has three offensive options – individually or in combination:

• a direct push from Zaporizhia towards Melitopol and Crimea to break the land bridge between Crimea and Donbass

• an attack in the Donbass

• a rollout of the front from Kherson

It is now waiting for the right moment for the offensive. “Ukraine should try to overload Russian troops and then surprise them at a weak point,” says Berni. And he is convinced: “We are likely to see even more confusion, surprise attacks and deception operations in the coming weeks.”

Source: Blick