Ron DeSantis is presenting himself as an alternative to Trump, despite polls to the contrary

Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, will announce his campaign for the Republican primaries these days. The Floridian, who would already start introducing himself as the only one who can beat Joe Biden A breakthrough in the Republican ranks was being prepared for months.

Speaking to donors Thursday, DeSantis argued that there are really only three candidates: Donald Trump, Joe Biden and him. And, DeSantis said, “of the three, only two have a chance of being elected.” So his team’s interpretation of “key state data” implies that only he could have kicked Biden out of the White House.

The call came after a hyperactive few months, in which the governor, in addition to leading Florida, laid the groundwork for his campaign. Without officially declaring himself a candidate, DeSantis has since January reformed a state law that prevented him from retaining his position and running for president; He published a book in which he talks about his experience and outlines the essential beliefs that would guide a hypothetical presidency; he has created a logistical and financial structure that he can influence with his presidential aspirations; and, above all, he has implemented his special “road map for the United States” in the country he governs. In reality, the candidacy is an open secret because he has swept his bid for re-election in November 2022.

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DeSantis’ roadmap last month included restrictive abortion regulations, one of the issues that will be key in public opinion ahead of the 2024 election. His proposal bans abortion in Florida from sixth week of pregnancy. But above all, it distinguishes him from Donald Trump, who said the six-week limit seemed “too strict” to him. “I signed the law. And I was proud to do it. He doesn’t want to say whether he would sign it or not,” DeSantis responded to veiled criticism from the former president.

Trump and DeSantis show a different conception of conservative ideology. If Trump sees the Republican Party as a vehicle to achieve his goals and convey his narcissism, DeSantis’s is a proud and committed conservatism. In 2015, while a congressman from Florida, DeSantis was a founding member of the Republican Freedom Caucus. The group, the Tea Party’s assessment, in addition to pursuing a deeply reactionary political agenda in social, sought to impose on the formation such an extensive veto as possible agreements with the Democratic Party. Basically, as DeSantis pointed out in 2015, they wanted to “push the whole party to the right.”

In all, days after DeSantis publicly announced his candidacy, a weighted model by political analytics blog FiveThirtyEight suggests Donald Trump would have 53.5% of the vote in the Republican primary compared to 20.8% of Floridians. A significant advantage. Furthermore, if the polls in February and March suggested a slight advantage of the governor over Biden (between 1 and 5 points), the truth is that today that advantage has disappeared. The latest polls show that the two Republican candidates would tie with Joe Biden if the election were held today.

“It will be difficult to overcome [DeSantis a Trump]. Running against Trump is no small thing.” says Alfonso Aguilar, senior vice president and political director of Americano Media Group, who believes DeSantis would have been an unbeatable Republican candidate had the former president not been involved in the race.