Russia has already lost the Battle of Bakhmut

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The Russian troops have been trying to take Bakhmut for months – at any cost. Now they could be close: According to the Wagner mercenary group, the Russian army made a breakthrough in the western part of Bakhmut on Thursday. According to its own statements, it controls 99 percent of the eastern Ukrainian city.

Still, the question remains whether Russia has now achieved its goal in Bakhmut. The answer: not quite. So says Gerhard Mangott (56), military expert at the University of Innsbruck. He puts the figures into perspective: “Ukrainian troops still control seven to eight percent of the city, especially in the west.” Still, things don’t look rosy for the Ukrainians in Bakhmut. Because, according to Mangott, the Russians are making progress – and could take the whole city.

Will the Battle of Bachmut be decided soon?

So while the Russians are well on their way to annexing the entire city, the Ukrainians are gaining land around Bakhmut again and again. Army Group East spokesman Serhiy Cherewati, 47, said on Thursday: “We managed to advance between 1500 and 1700 meters in one day.”

According to expert Mangott, this is a major advance. “They continue to surround the Russians in the city center.” The coming week will show whether the Ukrainians succeed in completely encircling the enemy.

Ukrainians are making significant progress

The never-ending battle for Bakhmut can currently be understood as two separate battles: the one on the flanks and the one in the city. But even if the Russian troops win the battle for the city, they will not emerge victorious from this battle. On the contrary, emphasizes Matthew Schmidt (47), an expert in military strategies at the American University of New Haven, in an interview with Blick.

It may sound paradoxical: although the Russians will soon occupy the entire city, they are still the losers, according to Schmidt. Because Bachmut in itself is not a strategically important place. More important, then, are advances like Ukraine’s: bypassing the city and cutting off the way out for the Russians, breaching and disrupting their defenses and supply chains.

Despite this, Russian troops insist on continuing to fight for the city center – rather than strengthening their defenses on the periphery. According to Schmidt, this is due to Bachmut’s high symbolic value. “The Russian army must take full control of the city. This is the only way to justify all sacrifices – human and material – to the Russian people.”

He explains: “If the Russians don’t win in a big, obvious way, then they’ve lost. It doesn’t matter how much territory they actually control.”

Thus, victory at Bakhmut would be a symbolic victory for the Russians. However, one of little strategic importance – and with incredibly high losses. But: There will be no Russian victory, says Schmidt. Because at least from a strategic point of view, the expert is sure: “Russia has already lost the battle for Bakhmut.”

Source: Blick