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Bakhmut has become the scene of the bloodiest battles in Ukraine. And the situation on the battlefield around the city, which once had a population of 70,000, remains unclear. While the Ukrainian army has recently announced successes there, other reports suggest the city in the east of the country could be on the brink of collapse.

At least there seems to be a glimmer of hope: the current military action in Bakhmut could be part of a larger plan by Ukraine.

Military economist Marcus Keupp of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich sees the recent Ukrainian gains at Bakhmut not as part of the counter-offensive, but as an opportunistic move. Keupp explained in an interview with ZDF:

The head of the Russian mercenary group “Wagner”, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has withdrawn his fighters from the flanks. Now these would be held in the north and south of Bakhmut by poorly trained Russian soldiers.

During the conversation, Keupp stressed that Ukraine’s actions in Bakhmut could be part of preparations for the counter-offensive that was about to begin. But this will not really begin until the attacks on Russian logistics are completed. “If Ukraine makes a mechanized advance, I think they will push through to reach the Black Sea coast and Crimea,” Keupp said.

Therefore, the Zaporizhia region in the southwest is a likely point for the offensive. An important resource are the British “Storm Shadow” missiles. The range of this powerful weapon extends to the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia.

Other experts also agree with this assessment: “I would tend to interpret that Ukraine is trying to keep Russian forces in Bakhmut to force them to stay at the front at some point,” said Ivan Klyszcz of the think tank ICDS in Estonia.

At the same time, Ukraine could attack elsewhere. “Recently, panic broke out in Russian military channels over alleged Ukrainian moves into positions in Russian-controlled areas,” says Klyszcz. But these sources are “not always reliable”.

“Ukraine has launched local counter-offensives in and around Bakhmut to push back the Russians and test defenses in the region,” said expert Lucas Webber, co-founder of the Militant Wire website. Something similar also happens at other points on the front. “It is difficult to say whether the planned counter-offensive has actually started, but these actions suggest that Ukraine is planning something much bigger,” Webber said.

Meanwhile, “Bild” reported on Thursday night that the Ukrainian city was on the brink of collapse. The “Wagner” mercenaries had managed to break through in the western part of the city over the past two days. This means Ukraine owns only one side of the city’s westernmost street.

The newspaper bases its analysis on, among other things, a video from the Ukrainian army showing soldiers fighting over Yuvileina Street. Behind it were only garages and open fields to the next village called Ivanivske. Russian forces have reached the east side of the road and control 99 percent of Bakhmut. The task of the Ukrainian army now is only to slow down the Russian advance west of Bakhmut. In addition, they wanted to try to surround the Wagner troops.

Oleksandr Syrskij, commander of the Ukrainian land forces, gave a first indication of this tactic. “After Bachmut, the ‘Wagner’ mercenaries crawled like rats into a mousetrap,” said the 57-year-old during a visit to the front a few days ago.

“If the Russians are not very careful, Ukraine could even manage to outrun and surround them,” Keupp told ZDF. For the mercenaries of “Wagner” the situation in Bachmut looks precarious, they are threatened with encirclement despite their own progress. “An interesting spectacle,” says Keupp.

According to the Reuters news agency, “Wagner” boss Prigozhin also confirmed the advance of Ukrainian troops in the disputed city of Bakhmut. “Despite the fact that the enemy only has a few percent of the territory in Bakhmut, it does not seem possible to surround the enemy,” he said in an audio message. “As a result of the enemy’s advance … Russian paratroopers have taken up positions advantageous to the enemy.”

For several weeks now, the Russian troops have been concentrating on defense and trying to secure the more than 800 kilometers long front – with anti-tank ditches, anti-tank barriers and trenches. In some places there are three lines of defense.

Used sources:

(t-online, aj)