Erdogan is much closer to victory than expected

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In a change of power in Turkey, it probably won’t work out. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) did better on Sunday than the polls had predicted in the presidential election. Now we go to the second round. There is also probably nothing in the way of Erdogan’s victory in the second round.

Erdogan received 49.5 percent of the vote on Sunday, ahead of his six-party backed challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu (74), who received 44.8 percent. Sinan Ogan (55) finished third with 5.3 percent. That means: Since no one obtained the required absolute majority, a second round between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will take place on May 28.

According to an initial assessment by the competent authority, the election went off without any problems. Opposition politicians reported minor incidents from several provinces. During the census, there were doubts about the figures published by the Anadolu State Agency. The results available so far are also accepted by the Anka news agency, which is close to the opposition.

Even if Erdogan – contrary to predictions – leads the way, it will be a setback for him. He has won every national election in his 20 years in power. The aura of the invincible is lost in this run-off. Kilicdaroglu appeared before the press that evening together with the party leaders of his six-party alliance. “Despite his slander and insults, Erdogan has not achieved the result he expected,” he said.

Most polls had predicted a majority for Kilicdaroglu. “The opposition was too naive and euphoric. She was too sure of victory,” say election observers. For many, Kilicdaroglu was the wrong candidate. He is considered not very charismatic, bureaucratic and too nice.

Erdogan has better chances. His Islamist conservative AKP and his ultra-nationalist partner MHP are likely to retain a majority in parliament. Erdogan therefore appeals to the Turks and warns that parliament and an opposition chairman would block each other. He also warns of a loss of “security and stability” if voted out.

The ultra-nationalist Ogan, who finished third, should make the race exciting again. Which candidate will he recommend to his supporters for election? He is currently negotiating with Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. He will investigate who can offer him more, for example a ministerial post. Because of the Kurdish issue, he is more likely to recommend Erdogan for elections.

The choice is indicative. It is feared that within another five years, Erdogan could become even more autocratic and pursue his opponents even more harshly. Kilicdaroglu promises a return to a parliamentary system, democracy and the rule of law.

Source: Blick