Leu departure and Ukraine arms: Switzerland moves

On May 9, Russia celebrates Victory Day. This year felt more like a day of impending defeat. Further west, this date has a completely different meaning. On 9 May 1950, the French Foreign Minister Robert Schuman laid the foundation stone for the creation of the current European Union with a speech.

That is why Europe Day is celebrated on 9 May. The EU embassy in Bern also hosted a reception in the Elfenau orangery on Tuesday, with two “illustrious” guests: Iryna Venediktowa, Ukraine’s new ambassador, and Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis. The Ticino did not give the impression of entering “enemy territory”.

Cassis was in good spirits and had a lively conversation with EU Ambassador Petros Mavromichalis. In his speech he remained non-committal, but in any case praised the “positive dynamics” in the talks with Brussels. That would be progress, because since the Bundesrat scuttled the framework agreement two years ago, the relationship had been frosty.

Already number 5

As soon as the reception came to an end, the Tamedia newspapers published the message that Secretary of State and chief negotiator Livia Leu intends to give up begging and end her diplomatic career at the prestigious post in Berlin. Official confirmation by the Federal Council followed the next day.

Reactions ranged from skeptical to negative. Because Leu was the fifth Swiss chief negotiator since negotiations on an institutional agreement with the EU began ten years ago. And the third in Cassis’ tenure. This does not speak for continuity, especially since the separation was involuntary in most cases.

«Good and respectful»

Livia Leu stressed to the media that it was “a personal decision” to go abroad again as ambassador. She described her relationship with her boss as “good and respectful”. Translated from diplomatic jargon, this means: An arrangement was made, but there was nothing more, let alone a close relationship of trust.

In Bern it was an open secret that there had been a crisis between Cassis and Leu. The (few) pro-Europeans in Parliament will not shed a tear for her. The Secretary of State was too cautious and defensive for her taste. The hoped-for relaunch with the EU has so far not progressed further than a few ‘exploratory talks’.

chance of a fresh start

Almost like a ritual, Livia Leu then emphasized that there were still “big differences”. But you can’t keep asking questions forever, even if the file is delicate and neither Switzerland nor the EU want to risk another mess. The Bundesrat therefore announced in March that it intended to take a decision on a negotiating mandate before the end of June.

It is not a loss but rather a gain when a new person is in charge of these negotiations. Even Livia Leu insisted on Wednesday that polls and negotiations are “not the same thing”. And the chances of a successful conclusion are greater than before, because there has recently been a kind of thaw in relations with the EU.

The Commissioner’s charm offensive

It starts with Secretary of State Cassis, who seems more motivated than before when it comes to the European issue. This was not only apparent from his performance on Europe Day. Because in Switzerland, the “pressure to suffer” is growing to conclude new bilateral agreements, for example on the supply of energy and medicines. However, those only exist with a framework agreement.

A real “sticking point” was the visit of Maroš Šefčovič, the Vice-President of the EU Commission responsible for Switzerland, in mid-March. The Slovak used it for a charm offensive, not without success. His meeting with Ignazio Cassis, which the Federal Council had reluctantly agreed to, apparently went extremely well.

Movement in wage protection?

The EU Commissioner also made a positive impression during his talks with the trade unions. “Gruwweg, Mr. Šefčovič has made concessions in the sense that Switzerland will receive protection for the existing wage protection,” said Adrian Wüthrich, president of the umbrella organization Travail.Suisse, the SRF.

In a conversation with Watson on Europe Day, Wüthrich had made identical statements. The hope is based on the so-called Windsor Agreement on Northern Ireland, in which the EU made similar concessions to Britain. Maroš Šefčovič was also responsible for this. This is interpreted as a positive signal.

Movement on the Weapons Demand

The trade union federation, the larger of the two umbrella organizations, has not yet commented. He wants to exempt the accompanying measures from the dynamics and jurisprudence of the European Court of Justice (CJEU), but that remains difficult. After all, it is about the free movement of persons, a fundamental principle of the Union.

It will hardly work without compromises from both sides. But recent events show that Switzerland is moving. This also applies to the decision of the Security Policy Committee (SiK) of the Council of States on Thursday to allow the transfer of Swiss weapons to third countries under certain conditions.

EU wants completion by summer 2024

Whether Ukraine can take advantage of this remains to be seen. Because until a corresponding revision of the War Material Act is available, some time should elapse, including a possible referendum, as the Bernese SVP Council of States and SiK President Werner Salzmann stressed. In Europe, however, such a signal from Switzerland could be perceived as positive.

It would be a surprise if the Federal Council does not decide in June to start official negotiations with the EU, with a new chief negotiator. The conditions are more favorable than they already are, as the EU hopes for a conclusion by the summer of 2024, before a new commission takes office.

That is very ambitious, especially when you consider the fruitless attempts so far to resolve institutional issues designed to secure the bilateral path. But it’s not impossible, because you really don’t have to reinvent the wheel.