Today is “Victory Day”: what is Putin up to?

Whenever Vladimir Putin wants to make a big speech, worries about a new escalation in Ukraine grow. Therefore, on Tuesday, May 9, all eyes will be on Moscow: the Russian president will also speak about Nazi Germany during the great military parade on Red Square on “Victory Day”.

The most important non-religious holiday in Russia is overshadowed this year by the drone attack on the Kremlin. Putin will want to show all the more his strength on May 9. But what does that mean?

In any case, it is to be expected that the Russian president will use his war narrative and, above all, accuse the US of waging a war against Russia with the help of alleged “fascists” in Kiev. Nevertheless, it is extremely unlikely that Putin will announce a further level of escalation in the war in Ukraine on “Victory Day”, such as further mobilization.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced “concrete actions” on Wednesday after the drone incident in Moscow. Kremlin propagandists even called for a nuclear strike on state television or on Telegram.

However, experts regard these as propaganda blowers, indicating one thing above all: Putin is giving his holiday speech at a stage of the war when the pressure on the Russian leadership is mounting – and the attack on Ukraine is unsuccessful. He has to show strength, but can’t do better than he already did.

At least that’s how Russia expert Gustav Gressel sees it. In an interview with t-online he says: “In the West, this day is somewhat overrated. Russian propaganda does not need real victories to celebrate victories – we sometimes forget that.”

May 9 is a holiday in Russia itself. Up to 27 million people from the Soviet Union died in World War II and almost every family had to mourn the victims of this war. That is why Russia keeps the memory of these people alive.

And so on “Victory Day” there are not only the famous military parades, but also fireworks and concerts in the evening. During the day, many people go out into nature, May 9 is generally considered a family holiday.

This is one of the reasons why Putin is unlikely to send any more of his people to war on the day when many Russians remember their dead ancestors. That would cause outrage in Russia and pose an incalculable risk to the Russian president.

For the president, on the other hand, it would be better to pretend to his people that it was normal and belittle the victims of his so-called “special operation”. He did the same last year, calling the Ukrainian government “fascists” but not escalating further in regards to his own people. Twelve months ago, observers in the West feared Russia could declare war on Ukraine on May 9. That didn’t happen.

For further mobilizations, however, the Kremlin boss does not need major announcements, which can be done secretly in the background. Putin wants to keep the people of Russia calm, not panic. For this reason, further spikes and rhetorical hostilities against the West are likely on May 9, while further military escalations will only be announced in extreme emergencies. If Putin took that risk, it would be a sign that he was up to his neck in water.