Putin’s power apparatus: that’s how important Shoigu and Prigozhin are to the Kremlin

Yevgeny Prigozhin points to corpses. They are dead fighters of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, led by Prigozhin. “Shoigu! Gerasimov!” he shouts, referring to the Russian Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army. “You bastards are in expensive clubs, your kids are enjoying life. Now you believe that you also have power over their lives,” Prigozhin continued, pointing to his fighters who died in the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

The video is a rarity. It is not often that the Russian military leadership is attacked so openly. However, it is not the Wagner boss’s first attack on the Kremlin leadership. Normally, the power elite around Vladimir Putin tries to eliminate critical voices in its own ranks. But Prigozhin seems untouchable.

The Wagner mercenary group has become an important tool of power for Putin, but just how important is Prigozhin to the Kremlin chief? Has Wagner perhaps even become too powerful? t-online answers the most important questions about the current power struggle in the Russian political elite in the light of the war in Ukraine.

There are two main reasons why Yevgeny Prigozhin allowed himself to attack Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, and Vitaly Gerasimov, the Chief of General Staff of the Russian Army, explains Sarah Pagung, political analyst and Russia expert at the Foundation, in conversation with t-online. On the one hand, Prigozhin does not directly attack the Russian power system and thus Vladimir Putin. “The fights he fights take place within the system and are therefore not seen by Putin as a threat to his position of power,” says Pagung.

On the other hand, Wagner, Prigozhin’s mercenary group, plays an important role in Russia’s war against Ukraine. “Wagner fights on several fronts – especially where the Russian army is not sent as often,” says Sarah Pagung. So Wagner fights on sensitive fronts like Bakhmut, but also leads oppressive missions that the Russian army carries out less.

Information about how many Wagner group fighters are deployed in Ukraine varies. Their strength was estimated at about 8,000 by Ukrainian military intelligence at the end of 2022 and about 50,000 by the United States Department of Defense. The sheer number of fighters makes Wagner, and thus Prigozhin, important to Putin — and gives him more freedom as long as he doesn’t directly attack Putin or his power system, Pagung says.

Sarah Pagung explains that Wagner will certainly not become too powerful: “The group of mercenaries depends on being able to recruit in Russia and especially on being able to use ammunition and heavy weapons from Russian stocks.” One of the Kremlin’s strategies to prevent Wagner from becoming even more powerful is to force the group of mercenaries to compete with other private security and military companies.

Among them is a new group of mercenaries who will set up the state energy company Gazprom. According to the American Business Insider, the mercenaries should protect Russia’s energy supply in the future.

However, the Gazprom mercenaries and all other private military companies in Russia have the same problem as Wagner, explains Pagung: There is only a limited pool of recruits and, above all, material. “Wagner is in a comfortable position there because the group can recruit cannon fodder from prisons, but at the same time has experienced mercenaries in its ranks and has heavy weapons,” the analyst explains.

The Kremlin leadership has repeatedly shown the Wagner group how dependent it is on the Russian state. Prigozhin repeatedly complained about the lack of arms shipments from Moscow.

Because of their loyalty, Defense Minister Shoigu and Vitaly Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff of the Russian army, are important to Putin, Pagung says. “In short, Putin doesn’t like to make changes,” added Fabian Burkhardt of the Leibnitz Institute for Eastern and Southeastern European Studies in an interview with t-online.

Burkhardt explains that firing Shoigu and Gerasimov at the staff level would also mean someone else would have to move up to these senior positions. And: “Shoigu and Gerasimov have made a comeback in recent months.” The relevance of both politicians suggests that Putin has no new recipes for war.

Switching either of the two would speak for a new approach to his strategy in Ukraine, the political scientist said. But there is little doubt that they may eventually come into the picture when Putin needs scapegoats for major defeats.

Shoigu and Gerasimov are two important personalities for the war in Ukraine, says Fabian Burkhardt. Domestically, however, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and the head of the Russian central bank, Elvira Nabuillina, are also important. “They absorbed the economic impact of the war against Ukraine after the first sanctions packages,” added Burkhardt.

The domestic secret service FSB and the judiciary are also relevant to Putin’s retention of power. Both institutions are important for the repression of the opposition and would ensure that the home front does not become dangerous for Putin, Burkhardt explains.

Political scientist Fabian Burkhardt does not believe Vladimir Putin’s rule will end anytime soon. “At the moment, Putin’s regime is stable,” he says. There is no faction within the Kremlin that can replace him. That is why he considers a coup unlikely: “The risk of a coup is low,” said Burkhardt.

The political scientist sees the greatest danger for Putin in the war against Ukraine. “He could even survive a successful counter-offensive by Ukraine politically,” Burkhardt explains. It would then be dangerous for Putin if influential figures in the Russian state publicly turned their backs on him. “Even if he were forced to resort to purges of the generals, such as prison sentences or even political assassinations, it would be a sign that he has serious problems.”