The surface water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is already higher than the long-term average and that is always accompanied by higher temperatures on land, the WMO reports in Geneva on Wednesday. With a view to 2024 and 2025, even temperature records are to be feared due to El Niño, says WMO boss Petteri Taalas.
The chance that an El Niño will develop is 70 percent for the period June to August and 80 percent for July to September, according to the WMO. This could further increase the average global temperature, which has been rising for decades due to man-made greenhouse gases. “The development of an El Niño (…) increases the chance that temperature records will be broken,” says Taalas.
El Niño and its counterpart La Niña favor extreme weather in many parts of the world. El Niño drives up the average temperature on Earth, while La Niña has a cooling effect. They appear alternately every few years. Both alter ocean and air currents in and over the south-southeast Pacific. Depending on the region of the world, this causes more precipitation or drought. Because the warming of the coastal waters near Peru was always particularly high at the end of the year, fishermen called the phenomenon El Niño (the Christ Child).
Over the past three years, the world’s climate has been affected by La Niña, Taalas said. “It acted as a brake on global temperature rise.” Experts cannot predict how long El Niño will last or how severe the consequences will be. Typical consequences, according to the WMO, are more rainfall in parts of South America, the southern US and the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya). In contrast, severe droughts are more common in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia. From June to September, El Niño increases the risk of severe storms in the central and eastern Pacific, while there are often fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic.
2014 to 2016 were marked by a very strong El Niño. In addition to climate change, this contributed to 2016 being the warmest year since industrialization. According to the WMO, the global average temperature was about 1.3 degrees above the 1850-1900 average. Not every El Niño has such a strong impact. (oee/sda/dpa)
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
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