Will the Ukrainians recapture Crimea in May?

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Preparations for the major Ukrainian counter-offensive are in their final stages: NATO has been supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons in recent months and Russian infrastructure is currently being destroyed in preparation. We show when to start and whether the counterattack will be successful.

Of course the Ukrainians keep their timetable secret. The starting gun for the counter-offensive should take place in the coming days. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg (64) said last week that 98 percent of the promised weapons had already been delivered to Ukraine. These include 230 tanks and 1550 armored vehicles. Yevgeny Prigozhin, 61, head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, said he expected an attack in mid-May.

There will probably be two thrusts: towards Crimea and towards Kharkov. In the Zaporizhia region, known as the “Gateway to Crimea”, the Russians are preparing for hostilities at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant and installing defensive positions. The Ukrainians were able to advance to the Sea of ​​Azov, dividing the occupied territories in two.

North of Kharkiv, the Russians have dug hundreds of kilometers of trenches in their own territory, which may indicate that they expect attacks in that area as well.

The large amount of weapons delivered indicates NATO’s high confidence that the Ukrainians will succeed in the offensive. The Russians are exhausted after the winter – it will probably be months before new soldiers are recruited.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 45, said he believed the counter-offensive would push back Russian troops and bring Crimea under Ukrainian control. Experts also assume that the Ukrainians should be successful – but the battle for the peninsula is likely to continue for months.

A complete reconquest of the lost territories will hardly be possible. However, it is conceivable that the Kremlin will give in. Military expert Gustav Gressel (44) says on br.de: «The best thing would of course be if the offensive were so successful that Russia really came under such pressure that it had to or wanted to withdraw from the war. Or that Putin is starting to think about whether or not he wants to negotiate.”

Prigozhin has criticized Russian warfare and also the weak units of other mercenaries. This may mean that he is afraid of competition from his own company. But the criticism may also be a ploy to trick Ukrainians into believing that the Russian military is divided and weakened, trapping them.

An important point is the paralysis of the enemy infrastructure. Nataliya Humenyuk (39), press secretary of the Southern Command of the Ukrainian army, said: “The infiltration of enemy logistics is one of the preparatory elements for the vigorous active actions of our armed forces.” These preparations apparently included the drone attack on a fuel depot in Crimea and the attack on a freight train in Bryansk.

Source: Blick