The challenges of the future Paraguayan president ‘will be enormous’

The official candidate wins santiago foam or opponent Ephraim Alegrechallenges Paraguayan after the general election this Sunday “they are big”assures in an interview for EFE Daniel Zovatoregional director International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistancewho points out that “at the center of the agenda is land management”.

Polls predict a very tight result, with the possibility of a change in power.

“However, the news is, with technical parity, strong growth that a third candidate is applying, Payo Kubasin recent weeks, who left from 15% to 23%“, points out Zovatto.

I don’t think it will be enough for him to win and compete, because these are elections in one round, says this Argentinian political scientist and lawyer, who participated in more than fifty election observation missions.

Tomorrow’s election will be the eighth since the return Paraguayan to democracy. He Party in Colorado, center right, won six times. The opposition, only in 2008, with former bishop Fernando Lugo, from the left.

COLORADISM IN POWER

So, except for the 2008-2012 bracket, Coloradoism has ruled continuously since 1947, including the dictatorship alfredo stroesner (1954-1989).

“We are facing an unprecedented event,” says Zovatto, who points out that this long exercise of power allows Coloradoism very good control and enforcement throughout the territory, a network of public officials and a very high level of affiliation “

Despite the fact that the majority of Paraguayans do not trust the electoral body (only 13% support it, compared to the 31% average in Latin America), the director of IDEA assesses that “the electoral system is transparent enough to guarantee the credibility of these elections.

“Another thing is political funding and how much competition is created under conditions of equality, because there the ruling party is always at an advantage,” he adds.

Political financing is linked to the problem of corruption. On January 27, the United States sanctioned Paraguayan Vice President Hugo Velázquez and former President Horace Cartes (2013-2018). He described the latter as a “significantly corrupt person”.

But this was not an obstacle for Cartes to remain in the position of president Party in Colorado and so that his political dolphin, santiago foamit was imposed in the internal party elections of the ruling party.

The American sanctions “had an effect from a financial point of view, because they forced the former president Cartes to reorganize his business and this generated a reduction in the availability of resources” for the election campaign, a campaign “that was not characterized precisely because of the in-depth discussion”, Zovatto points out.

CAMPAIGN WITHOUT DEBATE

Because, according to the opinion of the regional director of IDEA, the opponent Ephraim Alegre“with a strong anti-mafia and anti-corruption discourse”, he focused on the fact that it was time for changes, while official Santiago Peña spoke of “change in continuity”.

“There was no program, no technical, precise, rigorous discussion. what do you need Paraguayan manages to recover economic growth, as the country has been hit hard by the pandemic, drought and economic slowdown.”

Indeed, Paraguay experienced a sharp slowdown from 2019 to 2022, a year in which growth fell below 1%.

Projections for 2023 speak of a rate of 5.3%, which is necessary to face the challenges of slowing inflation, job creation and social debt generated by poverty and the very low quality of health and education, according to Zovatto.

CHINA OR TAIWAN

As for international relations, this analyst believes that investments China in the agricultural and livestock sector, can tip the scales in Beijing’s favor and that in the medium term Paraguay – the only Latin American country with diplomatic ties with Taipei – ends up severing relations with Taiwan

The growing influence of the Asian giant could also prompt an unlock and launch once and for all Agreement on strategic association between the European Union and Mercosur, which have been under negotiation for twenty-five years, “because otherwise the delay continues to open up very important opportunities for China, which acts much faster,” Zovatto explains.

This excellent political scientist does not rule out that the president of Paraguay, who will be elected this Sunday, will position himself alongside Uruguay and that the clauses Treaty of Asunción (agreement on the foundation of the association Mercosursigned in 1991) to accommodate trade negotiations with China.

And also that I pointed out to President Luiz Ináci Lula da Silva the need for renegotiations about Itaipu Treatyon the basis of which Paraguay sells the excess energy of this hydroelectric plant, the second largest in the world and the first in Latin America, to the South American colossus.

“We will have to see how the Congress is integrated to analyze the governance conditions that the new president will have to face with the agenda of the great challenges that Paraguay is facing,” concludes the regional director of IDEA.