Joe Biden: If not him, then who?

He couldn’t resist the symbolism. On the day exactly four years after the start of his last election campaign, Joe Biden announced that he wanted to run for president again. That’s not surprising. The president and his entourage have repeatedly suggested in recent months. At no time should there be any doubt that he, Biden, was ready to defend the country against Donald Trump again. That’s exactly what he now promises in a three-minute video released Tuesday morning US time: “When I ran for president four years ago, I said that we are in a battle for the soul of America. And that is still the case.”

Trump is not mentioned at all, but indirectly it is of course about him. Despite everything he tries to excite his followers, he can no longer fill the halls. But that could soon change. Hopes that he would be ineligible for a majority of Republicans were dashed in 2016. As of now, he has a double-digit lead in polls over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis — who is pictured with Trump in Biden’s video when it comes to battling the “Make America Great Again” Republicans.

No internal party challengers

This is probably one of the reasons why the Democrats have no internal party challengers. Even left-wing representatives of the party, long critical of Biden, support their president. It offers stability, argues New York MP Jamaal Bowman, for example, who won his seat in the House of Representatives with a campaign candidacy against an elderly Democrat. His colleague Eric Swalwell almost waxes poetic: “Nothing unites us more than success.”

That’s the narrative Biden’s party sells him on: never change a running system. Why change something if it works? Especially since the Trump alternative is one that threatens the stability, the system and – to stick with Biden – the very soul of the United States.

One would like to answer them with another saying: read the room, dear Democrats. Watch what’s happening around you. Yes, some things worked under Biden: the economy, the job market, support for Ukraine. His record is not the worst, at least domestic and foreign policy. From a European point of view, another four years of presidency by a genuine transatlantician is a good prospect, despite some economic disputes.

Still, more than two-thirds of Americans think the president should not run again — and more than half of registered Democrats. Because much of what the president has implemented does not reach the citizens. And his charisma? Progress looks different. By comparison, a large majority of Republicans wanted Trump reelected in 2020, and an even larger majority of Democrats wanted the same for Barack Obama in 2012. The same was true of George W. Bush in 2004 and Bill Clinton in 1996.

Little conviction among Democratic voters

Of course, opposing his candidacy doesn’t mean Democratic voters will also refuse to vote for Biden — whether in the party’s primary or thereafter in the November 2024 election. Especially if there’s no opposing candidate. And that won’t happen now that Biden has made his decision. His Vice President Kamala Harris, who has fallen short of expectations to become Biden’s successor, appears in his candidacy video — by his side. She should probably keep this supporting role.

What will be left if Democratic voters hoist Biden and his team back into the White House, but do so with little conviction?

Only 36 percent of those under 30 think Biden’s policies are good. This generation, to whom he and the Democrats have always been so vocal, are being shown that the most important political personality in their country should not be an actual election, but an automaton: if not him, then who? Biden himself initially indicated that he would retire after one term in office: “I see myself as a bridge, nothing else,” he said during the 2020 election campaign. The future of the country is already waiting in line behind him.

Only he can’t seem to resist the tantalizing challenge of beating Trump all over again. He makes no room for the future. His party, on the other hand, cannot break away from the tradition of always giving the incumbent party access to the candidacy first. This is exactly the kind of top-down politics that frustrates so many Americans because it makes innovation almost impossible. It’s an amazingly Republican way of thinking: the Democrats are subserving everything in this election campaign to staying in power.

The departed party is silent

The party seems to forget that many people didn’t just vote for Biden to vote Trump out. But also because they hoped that fundamental things would finally change – whether it concerns the social system, equality issues, access to free elections or the gun law. And last but not least: the question of who represents them politically.

As Biden takes to court the non-college-educated white voters Trump has swept away from the Democrats, other emerging demographics, such as youth and blacks, are expected to once again swallow their hopes for change. And without complaining choose an 80-year-old among whom things have not gotten worse, but also not significantly better. The departed party, whose lack of organization retaliates once again, is silent.

Against Trump, Biden also has a good chance of winning this election. But the fact that only he qualifies is a sign of failure for his party. It is not excluded that DeSantis will overtake Trump. The Democrats are not prepared for this. Biden would have worse prospects against him. His party did not come up with an alternative at all – at least one! – build it up. And Biden himself should have given Harris or anyone else a bigger stage from the second year of his tenure. At the latest after the midterm elections last November, when the Democrats avoided disaster and Biden turned it into his success, it was clear that no one would challenge him.

Even if things go well with Biden: A disaster similar to that of 2016 threatens for 2028 if the party does not learn to listen. Not because voters are turning en masse to Republicans. But because those who had high hopes for Joe Biden may stay home in the upcoming election.

This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed the headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.