Is the big counterattack coming? On the Ukrainian advance across the Dnieper

The rumor mill is usually buzzing for major military events, especially on social media. Agencies and bloggers are currently citing an assessment by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which reports the advance of the Ukrainian army on the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the Dnieper in the south of the country.

To put this in context, in November the Russian invaders withdrew from the port city of Kherson on the west bank of the Dnieper and blew up the remaining bridges across the great river. Then they fired on Kherson from the eastern bank. The Russian presence in the region is therefore a thorn in the side of the Ukrainians.

For about five months now, Kiev’s army has been making smaller advances on the eastern bank. Sometimes it’s reconnaissance operations or needle sticks, sometimes it’s about delivering supplies to partisans fighting behind the front lines. Such river crossings are nothing new and sometimes end in disaster, for example when the Russian army is in the right place at the right time or the Ukrainian attackers are precisely caught by Russian artillery fire.

Strategically important land bridge

In fact, in recent weeks there have been repeated reports that the Russians are withdrawing their civilian administration from the eastern bank of the great river and moving pro-Russian collaborators to safety on the Crimean peninsula. It is therefore quite conceivable that the Ukrainians have increased the pressure on the strategically important land bridge to Crimea.

However, the ISW’s assessment is mainly based on messages from Russian Telegram channels. There it is alleged, among other things, that the Ukrainians had set up bases on islands in the mouth of the Dnieper and regularly supplied them. The Wagner mercenary group’s Telegram channel even published a map that marked eight points where the Ukrainians allegedly crossed the waterway.

The channel also warns that the advance could be a distraction and that the main Ukrainian advance is likely much further east. By this, Wagner means a Ukrainian counter-attack that would cut the land corridor from Russia to Crimea along the Sea of ​​Azov. This land corridor is already east of the Dnieper, so a major river crossing would not be necessary there. That would be the most logical variant, were it not for the whole bolts of heavy fortifications that the Russians had built there in recent months.

Lots of speculation at the moment

But going back to the Kherson region further west: given the Ukrainian General Staff a free choice, they would certainly like to set up a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnieper. If this were successful, and if the Ukrainians could then push the Russians back far enough to provisionally repair the blown-up crossings across the river, Ukraine would gain a lot. The remaining Russian forces between this bridgehead and the land bridge across the Sea of ​​Azov risked being surrounded in this scenario. That would be a great interim success for the Ukrainians on their way to restoring their sovereignty over Crimea.

However, the planned major river crossing has many ifs and buts. Firstly, landing operations are extremely risky and secondly, the eastern bank of the Dnieper is quite swampy, not least because it has rained a lot in recent weeks. The terrain is therefore only suitable for tank attacks once the mud has dried and the bridges over the large river remain unusable. In addition, there are relatively few roads.

So currently there is there are hardly any signs that this rather small advance is the beginning of the great Ukrainian offensive. Perhaps it’s just a matter of scouting the terrain and possibly tempting the Russians to draw troops from further east – from the important transport hubs of Melitopol and Tokmak. The social media rumors are said to have served their supposed purpose.