What Xi Jinping’s clash of arms off the coast of Taiwan means for peace

Fighters and warships operate off the coast of Taiwan – China flexes its muscles again. For three days, the People’s Republic practiced war against the Republican Island. During the military maneuvers the encirclement and closure of Taiwan and attacks on “important targets” located there were practiced. With this military threat, China is rattling its sabers.

The military exercises have been “successfully completed”, according to the Eastern Territorial Command of the People’s Liberation Army of China. A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry echoed Beijing’s position: China must “resolutely oppose any form of separatism for Taiwan’s independence”.

China expert assesses potential for escalation

Concerns about the island are mounting as it faces a confrontation between China and the US. “China wants to demonstrate that it has all military means to take action against a possible formal independence of Taiwan in the event of a conflict,” explains China expert Klaus Mühlhahn of Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen. When Watson asked if the conflict was escalating now, he gave it all-clear.

According to him, the military maneuvers of the past few days are consistent with China’s previous reactions. The Chinese show of force followed a meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Muhlhahn says:

According to the expert, the military maneuvers are a threatening gesture. The Chinese military itself described the action as a “warning” to “separatist forces”.. Since the political split between mainland China and Taiwan in 1949, Beijing has regarded the island as a separate area that it wants to reunite with the mainland – by military force if necessary. Belligerent tones from the side of China. But would the country really attack?

“In my opinion, there is only a small chance of escalation at the moment,” says Mühlhahn. Both China and Taiwan have a strong interest in maintaining the status quo. But tensions are rising, conflicts and quarrels are on the rise, he explains.

This also increases the chance of incidents, which can then lead to an uncontrolled escalation. This raises the question of whether the US would go to war over Taiwan in a worst-case scenario.

American participation in the war would not be ruled out

“Nothing is 100 percent.” That is what the American political scientist Andrew Denison of the “Transatlantic Networks” said in an earlier conversation with Watson. “Sometimes ambiguity is a powerful deterrent.” The Chinese are therefore not sure that the US will not make a military contribution.

But US President Joe Biden had recently taken a clear stand on this. When asked by a journalist if American soldiers would defend the Taiwanese in an invasion, his answer was “yes”. Denison says, “The wording is clearer than before because the Chinese threats are clearer than before.” Accordingly, the United States also responded to China’s recent military exercises off the coast of Taiwan.

US sends warship to disputed waters

The US Navy is said to have crossed disputed waters in the South China Sea with a destroyer. According to media reports, the guided-missile destroyer USS Milius was traveling twelve nautical miles from Mischief Reef. This reef is part of the Spratly Islands, which China, the Philippines and other riparian states have been fighting over for years. With the “Freedom-of-Navigation-Operation” the US would have “guaranteed rights, freedoms and the rightful use of the sea”, the US Navy explains.

China described Washington’s actions as “illegal”. According to an army spokesman, the USS Milius entered “illegally (…) without permission” from the Chinese government. China claims practically all of the South China Sea for itself. But Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam also claim parts of the maritime area, which is of enormous strategic and economic importance to neighboring countries.

If tensions rise between China and the US over Taiwan, it would also affect Ukraine.

Taiwan and Ukraine: the US can’t help everywhere – or can it?

According to American expert Denison, a military escalation around Taiwan would not be good news for Ukraine. According to him, the political importance of Ukraine to the United States would then decrease, but so would military support.

However, the US is quite capable of protecting Pacific and Atlantic interests at the same time, the US expert told Watson. He also emphasizes that the US has a great interest in a peaceful, free and prosperous Europe.

“Many Americans today also see a connection between a successful pushback by Russia and a strengthening of China’s deterrence,” he says. In other words, if Russia were successful in Ukraine, it would be like an invitation from China to invade Taiwan.

Russia itself expresses its support for China’s military maneuvers. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters China has the “sovereign right” to respond to “various acts of a provocative nature” witnessed by Moscow. Beijing therefore also has the right to military manoeuvres.

China trained for the war against Taiwan with 11 warships and 59 military aircraft. The Taiwan Ministry of Defense is said to have observed this. Among the planes were fighters and bombers – China’s saber rattle was loud and clear, but the country is unlikely to attack – for now.