Europe as America’s “follower”? Macron’s comments are premature, but he is right

Emmanuel Macron has done it again: After testifying to NATO’s “brain death” in 2019, he once again dismissed Western allies with unexpected statements. Europe risks becoming a “vassal” and “follower” of a confrontational US attitude towards China, the French president told reporters on his flight back from his state visit to Beijing.

Significantly, the interview took place 10,000 meters above the clouds: a detached president, detached from reality, shoots at those allies who have not only twice liberated Europe from the horrors of the world war, but are currently also burning the coals in Ukraine.

The fact that Macron has long since become an incentive with the pension protests at home completes the picture. After the domestic political crash, Macron has now “bankrupted his foreign policy”, the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” is dropping the guillotine.

Interestingly, apart from some isolated reactions, official Europe has remained suspiciously quiet. This is probably because some European heads of state, especially in Western Europe, secretly agree with Macron’s analysis. You can now hide behind the Frenchman.

When Trump was still president, everyone wanted more distance from the United States

Of course, the “value partners” US and Europe have the same interests when it comes to China. But they are not congruent. A complete decoupling of the largest trading partner in the Far East, as the Americans are demanding, cannot get a majority in Europe and especially in Germany.

Should the Chinese decide to arm Russia for their war against Ukraine, the transatlantic bond will be subjected to another stress test. The US already has a sanctions regime in store for such a case, which they can activate with the push of a button. The Europeans will then have to decide whether they want to go along with it. If China tries to take back Taiwan, the reconciliation of interests will become even more difficult, Macron is right.

The outcry over Macron’s second demand to emancipate from US economic and military dependence is also surprising. Recently, when President Donald Trump, not Joe Biden, was still in the White House, that was the European consensus. It was said at the time that the US could no longer be relied upon, which some saw as on the brink of civil war.

Now we ourselves are at war in Europe and apart from Macron no one is talking about “European sovereignty” anymore. But what about if Trump or a like-minded person takes his seat again as chairman of the board in the US? Then the call for more European independence will increase again.

Do one and don’t neglect the other

The problem is that the notoriously divided Europeans will not be able to pull themselves together in the foreseeable future. The Franco-German axis is running even worse under Chancellor Olaf Scholz than under Angela Merkel. In the East and the Baltic States, mistrust of Western Europe has grown due to reluctance to supply arms to Ukraine.

When in doubt, they prefer to rely on the US and also rely on US equipment when equipping their armies. And more generally, the question arises of who should set the pace in Macron’s sovereign Europe. According to the French reading, it is of course Paris. But in the other capitals and especially in Eastern Europe you certainly see it differently.

Nevertheless, it is worth examining Macron’s arguments. They may come at an inconvenient time, because today Europe depends more than ever on the alliance with America: but as insurance for the future, greater independence from the US would do the continent good. This need not lead to a transatlantic rift along the lines of “either – or”. Rather, the motto should be: do one thing and don’t neglect the other. (bzbasel.ch)