These four war scenarios are conceivable

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What’s next in the war in Ukraine? This question also concerns the secret services. A classified document from US defense intelligence now spells out four possible “wild card” scenarios that could play out in the war in Ukraine.

The New York Times saw the document released as part of the Pentagon leaks. The document outlines unforeseen circumstances that could play a role in the war in Ukraine and have a decisive influence on the outcome of the war. Include hypothetical possibilities

• Scenario 1: Death of Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelensky (45)
• Scenario 2: Death of Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin (70)
• Scenario 3: deposing the leaders of the Russian armed forces
• Scenario 4: A Ukrainian attack on the Kremlin

escalation or even peace

The US is particularly concerned about scenario 4. Such an event could lead to an escalation in which Putin responds with extensive military mobilization and considers the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The danger of such an event is why the US has been reluctant to supply Kiev with long-range missiles. It seems that the Biden administration does not even want to provide the ally with the necessary funds for such an attack.

However, it is also possible that, faced with the attack on his own country, Putin would be ready for peace negotiations. Especially if the Kremlin boss has to fear that his people will rise up against him. To avoid a coup, peace negotiations could be the solution for him.

Document is marked «Relido»

The secret newspaper also emphasizes again and again that these are only estimates of possible developments. The experts play through each scenario and its consequences in order to prepare for it.

Such analyzes are typical of secret services, according to the New York Times. They serve to inform political decision-makers and military officers about possible options and consequences in conflict situations. The relevant document is marked with «Relido». This means that the decision on whether or not to grant foreign partners access to the information contained therein rests with senior officials.

The document does not contain an estimate of which of the described scenarios is most likely. It just lists them without judging them. Secret documents from US agencies about the Russian offensive war against Ukraine have been circulating on the Internet for weeks. The material is said to contain sensitive information about both warring parties. (A)

Source: Blick