US classified documents: live connection with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

The Wikileaks Trauma Runs Deep in Washington, DC Twelve years ago classified documents revealed details of US actions in the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. About a quarter of a million other documents gave the whole world an insight into the work of American diplomats – how they think, how they communicate, how they talk about enemies as well as allies.

From the point of view of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense, this was an absolute nightmare that must not be repeated under any circumstances. But already in 2013, Edward Snowden went public with the secrets of the National Security Agency (NSA). The fact that the US not only spied on large-scale internet users, but also international partners such as the then Chancellor Angela Merkel, caused unrest in international relations.

Now documents have been leaked again, presumably briefings for senior officials in the Pentagon. This time the focus is on the Russian offensive war against Ukraine. Compared to Wikileaks, there are only a handful of documents, about 100 in number. But they apparently provide insight into the core of Ukraine’s defense strategy, among other things. Highly sensitive details such as the location of troops are included, as well as possible weaknesses. Because that is also apparent from the documents: without ammunition stocks, the Ukrainian air defense system would not be able to withstand the Russian attacks for much longer.

Small but powerful

The fact that this information is now becoming public is dangerous for Ukraine, because Russia could use it to attack more intensively with jet fighters. According to one of the documents, stocks of old Soviet anti-aircraft missiles, which make up a large part of Ukraine’s stocks, should be exhausted by early May at the latest – at least in the consumption calculated at the end of February. That reports the New York Times.

Although this calculation may already be outdated, the most striking thing about the leaked documents is that they are only a few weeks old. And so, if you will, they provide a kind of live connection to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. In addition, there is information about Russia, but also about allies such as Israel, Turkey and South Korea – which has therefore been plagued by the West’s call for much-needed ammunition to be sent to Ukraine. Egypt, on the other hand, which receives more than $1 billion in military aid from the US each year, is said to have secretly planned to supply Russia with missiles.

This leak may be smaller than others, but no less: It is apparently directly relevant to the question in which direction the war in Ukraine could now go.

Before that, however, there is another question: where the documents come from, who photographed them and put them on the Internet, is still unclear. Their authenticity is currently being verified by the Pentagon. In South Korea, people want to know the result: “The two countries agree that much of the published information is falsified,” said deputy national security adviser Kim Tae-hyo.

According to research by the investigation network Bellingcat, at least some documents seem to have been manipulated by anyone: the number of victims on the Ukrainian side was higher and that on the Russian side lower than in reality. The distribution channels via pro-Russian social media channels are also a reason for caution. Is Russia ultimately behind it, as Ukraine claims?

That does not change how seriously the US authorities take the releases. Neither the Pentagon nor the National Security Council would comment on individual content. All they say is that the potential impact of the leak on US national security and allies is being investigated. And which groups of people should have access to such information in the future is also being reviewed. Hundreds, possibly thousands, of people are believed to be responsible for the leak, and while some documents have been circulating the Internet for quite some time, the Department of Defense only found out last week.

This is inconvenient for the US. It’s not just that what should never become public becomes public again: how the secret services work, for example in tracking down Russian troops using satellite technology, and how far their weapons reach – for example, into foreign government circles. This poses a very specific risk for informants or agents to be exposed. But it also upsets important partners: You can’t wait for the risk analysis from the US authorities, but have long been making your own risk analysis, CNN quotes an official from a country that is part of the Five Eyes intelligence agreement with the US saying that the US is. These include Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK.

It is not surprising that the US, as its main ally, is well aware of Ukraine’s strategy – all the more so since such documents, especially those labeled “Top Secret”, could so easily be leaked. The content is also delicate. According to the Washington Post, a possible counter-offensive by Ukraine would only lead to “modest territorial gains” because there were “shortcomings” in troop numbers and Russian defenses were too strong.

What does the US entrust to Ukraine?

This review is also from early February and may have changed since then. Publicly, Joe Biden and his administration always show confidence in Ukraine’s chances of victory. But what do you really believe in her? The question has come up again and again in recent months, especially with regard to the goal of retaking Crimea – and the Washington administration has always moderated this question. However, the latest leak seems to indicate that there are quite concrete ideas from a US perspective about what Ukraine can achieve. And above all: what not.

Not only Russia should find this “somewhat interesting”, as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said not without some malice. The more time passes, the more financial and military aid flows to Kiev, but most importantly, the closer the next US congressional and presidential elections get, the louder the voices of the Republican Party calling for an end to aid to Ukraine in favor of Ukraine. from “America First”. The fact that this support will continue “as long as it takes” — according to Biden’s promise — even though the U.S. government currently considers the prospects of victory or even significant progress low, would now be in view of these documents.

Not just in the US. In Europe, too, the call for negotiations between Kiev and Moscow continues to emerge. This leak makes the position of those who remain committed to full support for the defense of Ukraine even more difficult. Especially because it may get even bigger: because it is not clear where the leak is, no one can say whether more will seep through. “We don’t know. We really don’t know,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said when asked if there was any other classified material in circulation. That sounds like a very different debate could soon begin in Washington.

This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed the headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.