What the classified US information means for the war – and 4 other questions and answers

What is actually in the documents?

Various American media, such as the political news magazine Politico, first reported on the contents of the documents. The leaked documents are said to include information about US arms sales to Ukraine, ammunition consumption, troop levels of the belligerents, the locations of units and the number of casualties on both sides.

According to the New York Times, the documents also show that the US has a lot of information about Russian movements and possible strategies of the Kremlin.

But the war in Ukraine is not the only subject in the documents. The leaks also contain information about Britain’s geopolitical plans and views, as well as actors in the war in Yemen. This is reported by the research network Bellingcat.

Are the documents genuine?

The authenticity of the documents has been questioned on several occasions. For example, the Ukrainians suspected that Russia produced forged documents to sow discord in the West. This is what Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhailo Podoliak wrote on Twitter:

In fact, it seems unlikely that the documents are completely fabricated. For example, US government officials confirmed to the Washington Post and New York Times that the format of the documents is very similar to that of the CIA and that they are quite authentic. Another indication that makes the at least partial authenticity of the documents likely is that both the US government and members of parliament take the situation extremely seriously:

But it is also likely that manipulation was done afterwards, Bellingcat reports. Research and image analysis by investigative journalists revealed that different versions of the documents were in circulation – for example, the number of war victims was “covered up” on the Russian side.

Who leaked the documents?

So if one assumes that at least larger parts of the documents are genuine, the following question arises: who is responsible for the publication?

According to the Washington Post, hundreds or even thousands of Secret Service employees had access to the documents. The newspaper also refers to a statement from a government representative. There are countless employees who have the right level of security. According to CNN, the investigations of the American authorities are therefore focused on internal matters – and not, for example, on possible hacker breakthroughs from outside.

There’s another reason for that: the documents Bellingcat examined were photographed and not scanned, meaning someone had to be physically present to take the photos. In addition to the question of the mole’s identity, there is also the question of his motivation – two speculative theories are currently circulating: US domestic political interests and financial motives.

Do the leaks affect the war?

According to Die Zeit, the publication of the documents could especially harm the Ukrainian war effort – in several respects. On the one hand, the documents provide extensive information about the weapons made available to Ukraine by the West – an advantage for Russia. The same applies to the information on troop strength and defense strategies of the Ukrainian army.

On the other hand, the documents reveal how far the Russian security apparatus is penetrated by US secret services, wrote the New York Times. For Putin’s government, it is a kind of curse and blessing at the same time. It is positive for the government in Moscow that it receives information about weaknesses in the Russian state apparatus.

What do the leaks mean for US allies?

While the Western allies of the US should not be surprised that the US Secret Service also collects information about them, the data breach could cause irritation. Because if the information is true, Britain, for example, would also see classified information about the country that is not intended for the public.

The releases could further damage trust between states. Also because the affected countries will wonder how safe information from the secret service is that they knowingly pass on to the United States. This means especially in view of the extensive exchange of classified information between the so-called Five Eyes states of the US, Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

With material from the DPA news agency.