Child of Divorce Europe

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A strong wind is blowing between China and the United States. The administration of US President Joe Biden (80) does not like Beijing’s proximity to Russia at all – and Chinese ruler Xi Jinping (69) does not seem to want to deviate from his course. It is all the more important to have a good intermediary. The EU apparently wants to present itself as such.

Concerned about an axis of evil between Moscow and Beijing, EU heads of state and government have shifted diplomatic gear. On Tuesday, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (64) and French President Emmanuel Macron (45) will travel to China. After Xi visited Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) in Moscow last month, it is now the EU’s turn to court the Chinese leader in Beijing.

Macron’s efforts were doomed

Prior to the meeting, the expectations of the French and Germans are enormous. However, it is unclear how much the two can achieve. Even before the meeting, the White House had doubts about Macron’s success, writes “Politico”.

Xi is unlikely to comply with his requests, three government officials told the magazine. The White House recalls with regret Macron’s failed attempts to pose as a peacemaker for Putin more than a year ago on the eve of the Russian invasion. Bitter for the French: the US expects a similar outcome of the talks this time.

And von der Leyen showed a clear lead over Beijing on Thursday. “Beijing’s escalating actions point to a China becoming more repressive at home and more self-confident outwardly,” said the president of the European Commission. Fu Cong, 57, China’s EU ambassador, said on Friday he was “a little disappointed” by her statements. Was that a challenge from the Leyens to China?

EU squabbles over China

At least at the top of the EU, opinions are divided on the China issue. Dealing with China causes a stink between von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel (47). While von der Leyen calls for a tougher course towards China in the style of US President Biden, Michel calls for a more moderate stance, “Politico” reports.

The disagreement between the two top politicians is representative of the different views on China across Europe, says Fabian Zuleeg (50), chief economist at the European Policy Center in Brussels. “We don’t have a common view of China,” he told Blick. “That’s going to be a problem.”

Without unity within the EU, it would not be possible to take a clear stand on the China issue – or to mediate between China and the US geopolitical squabbles. “Europe has not prepared for this crisis,” said Zuleeg. “And now we don’t know which way to go.” Inevitably, Europe is spoiled for choice. Zuleeg herself is pessimistic about the EU’s future with China.

EU invests in China and vice versa

The economic activities of the EU and China are too intertwined. Just before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) from the EU to China was over €140 billion, while Chinese FDI to the EU was around €120 billion at the time.

After an interim decline in EU investment in China during the pandemic, it rose sharply again in 2022. Compared to the previous year, they increased by 92.2 percent, as shown by current data from the “China Briefing”. While still relatively modest given the size of China’s economy, EU investments are focused on key supply chains needed by European industry.

A satisfactory solution for everyone? “Difficult”

But the US is also a heavyweight in the European economy: in 2022, the US was the most important partner for EU goods exports (19.8 percent) and the second most important partner for EU goods imports (11.9 percent). US exports to the EU in 2022 amounted to $349.34 billion. This is an increase from last year, when US exports to the EU amounted to approximately $271.41 billion.

In the current situation, the EU has three options: keep multilateralism, rely more on the US – or hope for China. According to Zuleeg, the latter is hardly an option: the pressure from the US government is too great, the US is too important a partner. Attempting the balancing act between the US and China may also fail. The wishful thinking of Europe? “An open relationship with the two,” says Zuleeg. Is that possible? “Difficult.”

Source: Blick