Marin voted out leads to coalition chaos

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The era of Sanna Marin (37) is over. The Finnish prime minister had to admit her election defeat on Sunday evening. The conservative National Coalition Party Kok led by ex-Finance Minister Petteri Orpo (53) and the right-wing populist Finns Party led by Riikka Purra (45) have replaced their social-democratic party.

The three major parties gained seats compared to the 2019 elections. Behind: a big gap. Finnish media warn that the political center is gradually dissolving. The center party has achieved its worst ever result and the Greens have lost the most seats in relative terms.

At this point, it even seems that the Social Democrats could be ousted from government altogether. Because: the first placed Kok will probably form a coalition with the second placed Finnish party. This so-called blue-black coalition would bring about a shift to the right in Finland.

Coalition chaos coming now?

However, it will not be that simple, explains Finnish political scientist Hanna Wass (45) to Blick: “We could see very tough and lengthy government negotiations.” Because: Kok is not one hundred percent sure whether a connection with the Finnish party is the right solution. Kok will have to consider whether having a right-wing populist party in government will damage the reputation of the country and that of his own party among the population.

According to Wass, a blue-red coalition, ie between the conservative Kok and the social democrats, would theoretically also be possible. It is rare for the party with the most votes to skip the number two position when forming a government. But possible. That was already the case in 2019 – only the roles were reversed. At the time, the social democrats skipped the conservative Kok and formed a government with other parties.

The government must be able to fulfill election promises

However, such a coalition could pose another problem for the new government: in Finnish politics it is traditionally considered an honor to keep what is promised and what is said, writes the Finnish newspaper “Aamulehti”. The more diverse a coalition, the more difficult it is for the parties involved to keep the promises they made during the election campaign. This, in turn, could easily be interpreted by the Finnish people as a violation of election promises.

And how long does it take to form a government? This can easily take up most of April and May. The parties have, in fact, imposed an extraordinary number of conditions on who they want to form a government with. And the lack of a political center will make it difficult to form a majority. Kok would need the support of smaller parties for this. What is certain is that the whole process will be completed before the midsummer holiday in June, one of the most important holidays in Finland.

Source: Blick