“Russia will have lost in October” – 3 experts say how the war could end

An ETH expert’s statements about the outcome of the war in Ukraine caused a stir. Military economist Marcus Keupp claims “Russia will have lost the war by October.” However, there are experts who sketch a different outcome of the war. At the end you don’t see Russia.

No one can say with absolute certainty which scenario will eventually unfold. However, the thoughts of the next three experts are exciting and show possible further developments of the war in Ukraine.

Marcus Keupp

Let’s first look at the thoughts of Marcus Keupp. He believes Ukraine will launch an offensive with Western tanks in April. He says to the NZZ:

The ETH expert assumes that Russia will run out of tanks in the coming months.

Keupp does not assume that China will arm Russia. He says to the NZZ:

The resources of the Russians are dwindling, while the Ukrainians are getting a “technology boost” thanks to the West, says Keupp. “Then there is really no other course conceivable than a Russian defeat.”

Stephen Kotkin

Stephen Kotkin has a different take on developments on the battlefield. The historian works at Stanford University and has written a three-volume biography of Joseph Stalin. Unlike Keupp, he believes that Ukraine in particular is facing a resource problem. In an interview with the New Yorker, he says:

In fact, the United States should be supplying arms to Taiwan, Kotkin explains. They’ve been behind for four years, but now the guns are going to Ukraine.

The Russian leadership also has no problem sending people to their deaths, says Kokin. The Putin regime does not value human life.

Kokin therefore believes that there could be a solution if Ukraine recaptures only part of the country. In the disputed areas, there could be a demilitarized zone, such as in Korea. Despite the loss of territory, this could be a good solution for Ukraine, Kokin said.

Lucio Caracciolo

The Italian analyst Lucio Caracciolo paints perhaps the darkest scenario. “This war will continue indefinitely, with long pauses for ceasefires,” says the editor of the geopolitical magazine Limes. “It will not stop until Ukraine or Russia or both collapse, because it is a matter of life and death for both sides.”

The war in Ukraine is part of a global competition between the US, China and Russia. It’s about who will lead the world in the near future. Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow should be seen as a signal to the West, he says in an interview with Il Riformista.

It’s not like there’s a bloc of 7 billion people supporting Russia and China, says Caracciolo. Nevertheless, the West faces the “devil’s alternative”: