Is this the calm before the storm?

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Nothing new in the East – apparently. The front lines have changed little since November, when Ukrainian troops recaptured Kherson with their autumn offensive. But the current stalemate in eastern Ukraine could be the calm before the storm. Because Ukraine announced a spring offensive for April at the beginning of this year. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the recruitment phase should be completed by then.

Even if the Russian spring offensive is not quite over yet, Ukraine must prepare to launch a counter-offensive at any moment, explains Berliner Gustav Gressel (44), an expert on security policy and military strategies, in an interview with Blick . “As soon as the Russian front collapses in one place, Ukraine must use these holes.”

Russians entrench themselves in the front line

Yes, the Russians dug in. It is precisely at the most important points of the offensive – in Luhansk and Donetsk, for example – that the Russian troops build up their defense lines. This limits Ukraine’s capabilities for offensive moves. Satellite images can be seen here Brady Africa by the American Enterprise Institute think tank.

As the “Frankfurter Allgemeine” (FAZ) writes, the Russian occupiers began to consolidate their defense lines after the last Ukrainian counter-offensive in the fall.

These defenses consist of miles of trenches designed to hold back enemy tanks, “dragon’s teeth”—pyramid-shaped concrete anti-tank obstacles—and other obstacles. This makes it easier for Russian troops to attack the delayed Ukrainian tanks.

Striking: Not only Ukrainian, but also Russian territory is being built diligently. The new iron curtain stretches 400 kilometers along the Ukrainian-Russian border, the FAZ writes. Rightly so.

Ukrainians could attack Russia

Recently, the Americans promised to send 18 so-called “ground-launched small diameter bombs” (GLSDB, roughly: ground-launched bombs) to Ukraine. Range: 160 kilometers. Delivery date: unknown. The HIMARS ammunition delivered so far only reaches half as far. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, GSDB have already been deployed. There is no confirmation from the Ukrainian or American side.

It also allowed the Ukrainian forces to launch attacks into the Russian depths. According to Gressel, attacks on Russian territory could well be possible. It mainly appeals to drones, but long-range missiles could also offer an opportunity here.

It is true that Ukrainian influence depends on Western arms supplies. But little by little, more and more tanks, missiles and ammunition are arriving in Ukraine. German Leo-2 tanks and British Challenger-2s have recently reached the front lines, another harbinger of an upcoming counter-offensive.

It is unclear where the counter-offensive will lead. A Ukrainian offensive would make sense in the area of ​​the land bridge in the south, explains Markus Reisner (45), officer in the Austrian army of the “FAZ”. This could enable an attack on Crimea. But the nine-kilometer land bridge connecting Crimea to the mainland is dotted with Russian defenses. The attack on Crimea itself will be a very difficult and dangerous task for Ukraine.

Other options could also be conceivable. For example, a breakthrough of the eastern supply routes in the direction of the Luhansk region or an attempt to seize local territory by evenly overloading several front sections.

Source: Blick