The world population could reach 9 billion in 2050

A new projection estimates that the world population could reach a maximum of 9,000 million people by mid-century, significantly lower than the most recent leading demographic estimates, including those from United Nations.

The study goes further and confirms that if the world takes a “giant leap” in investing in economic development, education and health, the world’s population could reach its highest 8,500 million people in 2050

New projections are included in the study of the initiative country4everything for Global Challenges Foundation.

To make these projections, the team used a new system dynamics model with two scenarios in this century.

In the first, “too little too late”the world continues to develop economically as it has in the last 50 years and many of the poorest countries are emerging from extreme poverty.

In this scenario, researchers estimate that the world population could reach a maximum of 8.6 billion in 2050before descending on 7 billion in 2100.

In the second scenario, the so-called “big jump”researchers estimate that the population is reaching its maximum 8,500 million people around 2040 and decreases to approx 6000 millions at the end of the century.

But this can only be achieved through “unprecedented investment” in poverty reduction – especially in education and health – along with a remarkable shift in policies for food and energy security, inequality and gender equality.

In this scenario, extreme poverty disappears within a generation (by 2060), with a marked impact on global demographic trends.

The authors believe that it differs from other major demographic projections in that it tends to downplay the importance of rapid economic development.

“We know that the rapid economic development of low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates. Fertility rates decline as girls access education and women become economically empowered and have access to better sanitation,” he confirms. After Espen Stocknesproject manager country4everything and the director Norwegian Business School Center for Sustainability.

“Few leading models simultaneously simulate population growth, economic development and their connection,” he adds. Beniamino Callegarimember of the modeling team Earth4All.

The analysis uses ten world regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, China and the United States.

Currently, population growth is higher in some countries than Africaas Angola, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria, and from Asia, for example, Afghanistan.

“If we assume that these countries adopt sound economic development policies, we can expect the population to peak sooner rather than later,” explains Callegari.

The team also looked at the link between population and exceeding planetary boundaries, related to Earth’s carrying capacity.

Contrary to popular myths, the team found that population size is not the primary driver of overshooting planetary boundaries, such as the climate crisis, but that a dizzying 10% level of footprint is what destabilizes the planet. the richest in the world

“Humanity’s main problem is the luxury consumption of carbon and the biosphere, not population. The places where the population is growing the fastest have an extremely small ecological footprint per person compared to the places that had their population peaks many decades ago.” , he asserted Jorgen Randersfrom Earth4All.

According to the team’s demographic projections, the entire population could achieve living conditions above the minimum level United Nations without significant changes in current development trends, as long as resources are evenly distributed.

The research also concludes that, at current population levels, it is possible for everyone to escape extreme poverty and cross the minimum threshold for a dignified life with access to food, shelter, energy and other resources, although this requires a distribution of (much more) equitable resources.

“A good life for all is only possible if the extreme use of resources by the wealthy elite is reduced,” concludes Randers.