Prigozchin’s fear – and what he plans with the Wagner army

The denial followed promptly: “I don’t know what Bloomberg is reporting, but apparently you know better than I do what we’re going to do next. As long as our country needs us, we will be at war in Ukraine,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, told the world via Telegram.

The business channel previously reported that the mercenary group would like to withdraw troops from Ukraine, possibly to spend more time on other places. But what would that mean for the war in Ukraine – and how seriously should such reports be taken? t-online provides an overview.

What is Prigozhin supposedly up to?

According to Bloomberg, the Wagner boss is preparing to withdraw parts of his army from Ukraine. The reason is that the Russian military prevented Wagner from receiving more personnel and ammunition from Russia, according to anonymous sources.

Instead, Wagner now plans to spend more time on her missions in Africa. The private army does not provide official figures showing where and with many soldiers the group is active. In principle, however, it is no secret that the mercenary force is active on the continent: a study last February, co-funded by the CSU-affiliated Hanns Seidel Foundation, assumes that Wagner has soldiers stationed in more than a dozen African countries: The study of the “Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime” mentions Sudan and the Central African Republic as closest partners.

There are also numerous reports of operations in Libya, Mozambique or Mali: the military junta there is pursuing an anti-Western course and has brought Russian troops into the country to act against jihadists and other terrorist groups.

Partly due to Wagner’s increasing presence, France had ended its own anti-terrorist mission in the country. The Bundeswehr also plans to leave Mali by 2024 at the latest. Similar Wagner missions are likely also planned in other countries: one target should be Burkina Faso, which borders Mali to the south.

What use are such threats to Prigozhin?

Again and again, Prigozhin complained about a lack of ammunition and a lack of support from the Kremlin. Only on Monday did the Wagner boss send a letter to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu calling for reinforcements. Shoigu must take urgently necessary steps or it would have “negative effects” on Russia’s offensive war in Ukraine.

Wagner’s mercenaries are said to be especially active in Bachmut, where the private army is advancing with heavy losses. Fittingly, Prigozhin recently announced that an additional 30,000 soldiers would be recruited by May, and prisoners from prison camps were also sometimes recruited for Wagner.

However, the skirmishes that Prigozhin is conducting with the Kremlin are only superficially of a purely military nature: the head of the mercenary force is said to repeatedly aspire to one day take the place of Vladimir Putin. Putin himself, on the other hand, is careful that no figure in his power apparatus can become a danger to him, which is why he always seems to be looking for counterweights.

Prigozhin’s private army served the Kremlin for a long time to prevent the Russian army from becoming too powerful. At the same time, the lack of ammunition and perceived lack of support are an indication that Putin may now be trying not to let the role of Wagner forces and Prigozhin in Ukraine become too great.

Is Wagner’s withdrawal realistic?

If the analyzes of the latest analyzes of the “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW) are to be believed, it is quite conceivable that the Wagner mercenaries would leave Bachmut. However, this is less about a tactical decision to spend more time on Africa and more about the fear of a Ukrainian offensive: Prigozhin also expressed similar concerns in a recently released video. Reportedly, 200,000 reservists on the Ukrainian side are ready to attack not only Bakhmut, but also the entire Eastern Front and the Russian Belgorod Oblast.

The ISW classifies the figures as exaggerated and interprets the statements in such a way that Prigozhin apparently fears losing all his units in Bakhmut in the near future. So it could be another attempt to get additional support from the Kremlin. In the video, his rhetoric was also less harsh than in the statements made earlier this week. The ISW understands that her more authoritative words are a renewed attempt to get concessions from the Kremlin.

Is the Ukrainian counter-offensive coming?

Prigozhin’s fears are not groundless. The Ukrainian armed forces recently announced a corresponding counterattack in Bakhmut. Russian troops are “obviously losing strength” and are “exhausted,” Ukrainian ground force commander Oleksandr Syrskyj told the Telegram online service on Thursday.

“We will seize this opportunity very soon, as we did in Kiev, Kharkiv, Balakliya and Kupyansk.” The military expert Carlo Masala also said in a recent interview with t-online that no major attacks are currently expected from the Russian military. “When you consider how massively Russia has stockpiled its arsenal of war equipment and people, the results are minimal. I think the peak of the Russian offensive has been reached.”

Plans for a larger spring offensive have been underway for some time. According to media reports, members of the Ukrainian military played out various scenarios with representatives of the US forces in Wiesbaden in mid-March. According to the expert Masala, there would be success if Ukraine could recapture a strip from Zaporizhia to the Sea of ​​Azov: “Then the Ukrainians could also put Crimea in trouble.”