Russia withdraws units from Bachmut – is the momentum turning now?

Before the war, Bakhmut was the city of roses. Now she’s hell on earth. For more than seven months, since August 1, 2022, Russian soldiers and mercenaries, ex-convicts and conscripts have been trying to storm the city. For more than seven months they have been wiped out. Not a single building was left untouched in the war’s longest battle to date, Deputy Mayor Oleksandr Marchenko told the BBC. Only 4,000 of the original 74,000 inhabitants remain. They live in bunkers without gas, water or electricity.

The toll of blood on both sides is enormous. Since the intensification of hostilities, Western estimates put Ukrainian casualties at 100 to 200 per day. On the Russian side, the numbers are even higher. Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, estimates that for all his own losses, seven Russians are killed – mostly Wagner mercenaries, who sometimes with, but often without, artillery protection literally “burn up” for a few yards gained.

With the sheer mass, Russia is slowly eating its way into Ukrainian territory. In early March, Wagner boss Prigozhin declared that the city was “virtually” surrounded. His men would only fight old people and children. He loudly called on Ukrainian President Selenskyj to withdraw his troops. “Russia may be about to take Bakhmut,” Time magazine headlined on March 6. Blown bridges also signaled a retreat. Only the notification of completion was missing.

Ukraine even gave up positions east of the city. The Bakhmuta, the tributary of the Severskyi Donets, which splits the city in two into a western and an eastern part, forms the new front line. It is also getting tighter in the north and south. The Ukrainian troops can only be supplied through a narrow corridor. However, this has so far proved impregnable to the invaders. Attempted attacks from the north and south were crushed, as was an assault by Wagner mercenaries through the town centre. That was 10 days ago. The city is still not in Russian hands.

According to the latest information, it is more likely that this will remain the case. British intelligence reports that Russia has withdrawn several units from the area. There is therefore a real chance that the invaders will lose momentum at Bachmut.

As the Institute for the Study of War writes, most contracts of former convicts among the Wagner mercenaries expire in the coming weeks. The recruited criminals usually have a six-month contract. If they manage to live up to this demand, they can return to Russia as free citizens.

As of July 2022, Wagner is known to be systematically recruiting in Russian prisons. Since January 2023, there are more and more videos of grateful convicts who managed to return alive from Ukraine. You are now free again. One of them is Anatoly Salmin. The convicted thief and murderer should actually be serving years in prison. As the Guardian writes, while fishing he hit a friend twice with a rock and then drowned him in a quarry. Salmin can now terrorize his native village Pikalevo again. Just like he did before his conviction.