The President of Serbia and his “sore hand” – all about the Serbia-Kosovo Summit

Numerous media outlets wrote at the beginning of this week about “significant progress” and a “normalization of the relationship” between Serbia and Kosovo. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell euphorically tweeted: “We have a deal.” Even US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed how proud the US was of its contribution to the agreement.

Three days after the meeting between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, there is not much left of this euphoria. The following list of questions and answers shows what has been achieved in Ohrid in North Macedonia and what has not.

What was decided at the Serbian-Kosovar summit in Ohrid?

After the 13-hour meeting, Kosovo and Serbia verbally agreed to an agreement lumberingly titled “Implementation Annex to the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia”; ie an additional agreement to the EU standardization agreement, which was published in its final form in Brussels at the end of February.

Formerly known as the “German-French Kosovo Plan”, this agreement aims to peacefully settle future relations between Serbia and the unrecognized republic.

Just like the actual standardization agreement, the enforcement annex consists of eleven articles, with which both parties mainly commit to “good will”. One of the few concrete points is that both parties form a joint monitoring committee within 30 days to oversee the approval process.

How is the EU trying to enforce its standardization treaty?

With carrot and stick. In the enforcement addendum, the EU promises to organize a donor conference within 150 days, which will provide Serbia and Kosovo with significant resources to finance joint economic development, expand transport infrastructure and for climate protection projects.

However, according to the agreement, the money will not flow until both parties have met all points in the standardization process. Violations of individual points would also have “direct negative consequences for the EU accession process”, the European Union threatens.

What happened after the Ohrid agreement?

After the conference, Aleksandar Vucic stressed that although the talks had taken place in a constructive atmosphere, he had not signed any agreements.

In a TV interview, Vucic added: “I have excruciating pain in my right hand and I can only draw with this hand. This pain will last for the next four years.” That was a clear concession to those nationalist circles who demonstrated with tens of thousands in Belgrade over the weekend for a Serbian Kosovo.

Under him, Serbia will neither recognize Kosovo as a state nor agree to its membership in the UN, the president reiterated in another interview on Tuesday. Nevertheless, Belgrade will start fulfilling the points in the enforcement addendum, Vucic performed his usual balancing act. This is despite the fact that he does not believe that Kurti will agree to his core condition – the formation of a Serbian community association in northern Kosovo.

At the same time, Kurti was criticized by the opposition in Pristina for once again returning from a round of talks without a Serbian signature.

Where is the weak point in Kosovo’s position?

Although Kosovo has the support of US and EU foreign policy, which Serbia always bitterly complains about, Prime Minister Albin Kurti is unyielding on the issue of the Serbian municipal association. The fear in Pristina is too great that, analogous to what happened in the Bosnian war, such a municipal association could form the core of a Kosovo Serbian state, splitting the young republic and, in the worst case, even destroying it. involvement in civil war.

With “We’re not stupid” Kurti acknowledges requests on his side to be lenient here. But as long as Kosovo is no longer willing to compromise on the issue of the Serbian municipal association, Serbian President Vucic can emphasize with a certain rebuke that Kurti does not want to meet all EU requirements either.

What is Serbia’s further strategy?

It is clear that Serbian President Vucic is playing time with the Kosovo issue. In an earlier interview, he made it clear how great the pressure from the US and the EU is currently being exerted on Serbia. During the Ukraine war, the West wanted “peace in the backrooms of the Balkans,” Vucic said, and Serbia should bow to the rights of the stronger for now.

The Serbian president is therefore waiting for what he sees as a more favorable general political climate, in which friendly Russia will emerge stronger from the Ukraine war and can increasingly assert its influence in the Balkans.

Then Russia, flanked by the big investor China, could not only continue to nip Kosovo’s accession in the bud with its veto threat at UN level, but also pursue a more restrictive Kosovo policy, which would be much more in Belgrade’s interest. than the current EU standardization plan. (aargauerzeitung.ch)