The attack on Crimea could herald a counter-offensive by Ukraine

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On Tuesday night, a large cloud of smoke could be seen over the town of Dschankoj, which is located in the north of the Crimean peninsula. Flames lit up the night. According to Ukrainian military intelligence on Twitter, a Russian missile transport has been attacked.

The attack brings back memories of last August, when Ukrainian forces attacked an ammunition depot near Jankoy in northern Crimea and also damaged a nearby railway line.

Less than two weeks later, on August 29, 2022, Ukraine launched a military counter-offensive to ambush Russian forces.
occupying the southern regions of Kherson and Mykolayiv Oblasts. In September, an additional counter-offensive was launched around Kharkov.

Will Ukraine bind Russian troops in Bakhmut?

But history repeats itself not only in Crimea, but also in Donbass. In Bachmut, a war of attrition has been raging for months. Neither side wants to give up – even though the city is of little strategic importance. Ukraine’s idea: tie up Russian troops and prepare a counter-offensive elsewhere, like last midsummer.

In the battle for the Donbass sister cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in August, the Ukrainians managed to distract the Russians. They did not notice that the Ukrainians acted coolly away from the hot fighting. Soon after the Ukrainians withdrew from the two cities, they began to recapture large areas around the city of Kharkiv and in Kherson Oblast. In the case of Bachmut it could be similar.

With the attack on Crimea, are we seeing the start of a new Ukrainian counter-offensive as in August 2022? So says Marcus Keupp (45), military economist at ETH Zurich. “I think Ukraine’s attack against the Jankoy railway junction is a preparatory operation for the upcoming spring offensive.” tweet Keupp on Tuesday morning.

Dzhankoy is Russia’s main railway hub in Crimea. From there, the rails run in all directions – except the Russian mainland, over the Crimean Bridge, which was attacked last fall. The aim of this action: to interrupt Russian supply chains so that the troops at the front can no longer be supplied with material.

The spring offensive could begin in April

In addition, there are many signs that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will focus on the south of the country – and therefore on Crimea. No wonder: since its annexation in 2014, the reconquest of Crimea has been one of the main goals of the Ukrainian government. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (45) has repeatedly asked for weapons for a recapture, leading Ukrainian soldiers often spoke of a planned attack.

And weapons were delivered – worth tens of billions of dollars. Ammunition. Rockets, artillery pieces, tanks and fighter jets from the west clear the way for a counter-offensive of enormous force. It may take until April. However, military expert Carlo Masala (54) assumes that the reconquest of Crimea is still a long way off. “I think it would be a huge success if Ukraine succeeded in separating the southern front from the eastern front, that is, breaking through from Zaporizhia to the Sea of ​​Azov. Then the Ukrainians could also put pressure on Crimea,” he told T-Online.

Source: Blick