Chinese weapons for the Kremlin? A dangerous border crossing

If it’s true, there will be consequences. At least, that is what even high-ranking members of the German government had repeatedly said in recent weeks. Should China really provide arms to Russia, it would add a whole new dimension to the war in Ukraine, it said. Then sanctions against China would not be ruled out. But the goal is to prevent that.

By late February, the issue of Chinese arms supplies had become particularly explosive. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly warned that new information from US intelligence agencies indicated that Chinese companies are not just selling civilian products to Russia that could be used for assassination purposes. Blinken’s hints at the time: China could also provide “lethal support” to Russia. Such an escalation would have “serious consequences” for China, he warned.

China moves in the gray area

Since then, the US and its G7 partners, including Germany, have been exploring the extent to which joint sanctions could be imposed on China. When Secretary of State Annalena Baerbock (Greens) spoke at the United Nations on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of New York, China’s role was central. When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) traveled to the US President in the Oval Office shortly afterwards for a one-on-one meeting, China was also at stake. Finally, when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was a guest in Washington, she and Biden also discussed possible consequences.

Research from the American magazine “Politico” can now put pressure on the Allies. Citing trade and customs data, the authors write that Chinese companies allegedly supplied about 1,000 assault rifles, drone parts and body armor to Russian companies last year. At the same time, the US television channel “CNN” revealed that Ukrainian soldiers shot down a Chinese-made Mugin-5 drone over the weekend. The aircraft, which was actually used for civilian purposes, also known as the “Alibaba” drone, was retrofitted and armed.

Pat Ryder, spokesman for the US Department of Defense, did not want to classify these deliveries in the category that would lead to direct consequences, telling representatives of the press in Washington on Thursday. He knows about the new press releases. “However, so far we have not seen lethal support transferred from China to Russia for battlefield use in Ukraine,” Ryder said. Despite their lethal effect, weapons are considered so-called dual-use items that are not defined as “lethal aid” per se. It is a loophole that China and Russia seem to be able to exploit.

A questionable peacemaker

In an interview with “t-online”, US think tank Council on Foreign Relations security policy expert Liana Fix said: “Given the far-reaching impact that any sanctions would have on the entire EU-China policy, it is clear that the US has clear evidence and is coordinating with its allies.” Should China really take the step and clearly arm Russia for the war in Ukraine, European states would have to bear the consequences if they don’t want to thwart their own support for Ukraine, Fix said.

The Chinese government is building a reputation as a peacemaker. On the very anniversary of the Russian invasion, a much-criticized pro-Russian proposal for a peace plan was circulated. Even a meeting between President Xi Jinping and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy is now being planned. The investigation into the arms shipments should now put quite a damper on your own request. Even if it’s not about tanks or planes.

Would Germany really be ready for sanctions against China?

Although the US government has not yet confirmed the reports, questions about possible consequences are being raised more urgently. There is already much to indicate that the US will continue to increase pressure on its allies. And the German federal government is just starting to get its first national security strategy in order, which has not yet been published. It should come out this month and mention Russia as the biggest threat in the security strategy. China, on the other hand, should still be described as a “partner, competitor and systemic rival”, in the same way as in the coalition agreement between the SPD, the Greens and the FDP.

The differences between Germany and the US in relation to China have long been apparent – especially when it comes to critical infrastructure. That became clear at telecom provider Huawei. The US government is currently taking much harder action against the Chinese social media company Tiktok, whose app is also used by millions of German users.

The cybersecurity director of the US foreign intelligence service NSA, Rob Joyce, describes the app as a “loaded weapon” that would allow China to spread disinformation and spy on the privacy of US citizens. The Biden administration is now even reported to have asked Tiktok’s Chinese shareholders to sell their shares if they wanted to get around a ban on the app in the United States. In Germany, it is so far only known that employees of federal ministries are not allowed to use the app, at least not on their business mobile phones.

Interest in a confrontation with China is remarkably low. It is clear that for Germany and the European Union the economic consequences of sanctions against China are likely to be much more far-reaching than those against Russia.

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