“Unfortunately, military action cannot be ruled out”

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While Russian troops in Ukraine are suffering massive damage, the Kremlin is threatening aggression against other states. At the center are Georgia and Moldova – both with no organization like NATO behind them, both self-contained, both with weak armies.

The Russian Foreign Ministry threatened Georgia after protests against heightened surveillance on Twitter: “We recommend that the Georgian people remember a similar situation in Ukraine in 2014 and where it ultimately led.”

Moldova has also threatened the Kremlin on several occasions. Among other things, he warned of alleged military provocations by Ukraine on the Moldovan and pro-Russian territory of Transnistria. According to a secret document, Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) wants to make the country dependent on Moscow by 2030 at the latest.

But Moldovans are wary: On Sunday, Moldovan police managed to expose a Kremlin network and arrest seven men.

Russia has enough power

ETH military strategist Mauro Mantovani (59) believes that despite the war in Ukraine, Russia has the power for further attacks and may even get serious. “Unfortunately, limited military action by Russia against the two countries cannot be ruled out,” Mantovani told Blick. He is thinking of a strategic strike to establish a pro-Russian government.

According to Mantovani, despite the war in Ukraine, Russia has sufficient capacity to do so. “Russia could raise the necessary troops without much preparation, especially the air force was only partially used in the war in Ukraine.”

An excuse for an attack is easy to find, says Mantovani. “A war would be easily provoked by coming to the aid of the beleaguered ethnic Russians and stopping pro-Ukrainian policies and support for the warring party, NATO.”

Putin wants to keep NATO at bay

Putin’s goal is clear: he wants to keep his neighbors within his sphere of influence in order to prevent these countries from joining NATO and to keep the Western military alliance at bay. He has already done that with Belarus, which is helping him in the war in Ukraine. Russia expert Ulrich Schmid (57) tells Blick: “Actually, he has already succeeded in Georgia and Moldova. Because they don’t control all of their territory, they can’t even join NATO.”

Since 1992, Transnistria in Moldova has been a Russian-backed breakaway region, and since 2008 Moscow has been enacting a similar scenario in Georgia’s regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Provocations also in Serbia

Schmid assumes that Putin will intensify his destabilization strategy. Schmid: “Putin follows the logic with his destabilization of Moldova and Georgia: if these states do not remain in Russia’s sphere of influence, then they should not be integrated into the West.”

He also tries to destabilize the political situation in Serbia. With some success: there are pro-Russian rallies again and again, for example at football matches. But Schmid puts it into perspective: “Putin has only limited influence in Serbia because the country is closely intertwined with the EU.”

Source: Blick