What defeat in Ukraine could mean for Putin

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The Russian offensive war in Ukraine is not going as Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) had imagined. A military victory over Ukraine is not in sight. Instead, in Bachmut, for example, every meter must be fought bloodily.

Kiev has announced a counter-offensive for the spring. At the moment, no one can rule out Russian defeat in the neighboring country they invaded.

If Russia loses the war against Ukraine, experts say that will also have consequences for Putin. “Putin can be replaced. He’s not a superhero. He has no super powers. He is just an ordinary dictator’, says former diplomat Boris Bondarev (42). But what might Russia’s defeat look like – and what will happen to the man who has held a position of power in the Kremlin for decades?

Vlad Mykhnenko, an Oxford University expert on the post-Communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, outlines three possible defeat scenarios in a Newsweek article. “Much, if not all, depends on the nature of the defeat,” the scientist explains.

Caused by a successful “Ukrainian offensive on one or more fronts”, the Russian troops must retreat quickly and in an orderly fashion. The front line collapses. According to Mykhnenko, that would also lead to “huge panic” in Crimea and Donbass. Also, 600,000 Russian settlers would be forced to flee. Putin’s days in the Kremlin may then be numbered.

In the second scenario, Mykhnenko depicts a World War I-style retreat, “similar to the collapse of the Russian army in 1916–1917”. Means: the current slow war of attrition continues. Poorly equipped Russian reservists had to endure for months in cold, muddy trenches. At some point they have had enough and desert en masse.

According to the Eastern Europe expert, this scenario could lead to Putin agreeing to a gradual step down “to make way for a new leader”. However, this presupposes that the Russian elite grants him immunity from prosecution.

The war in Ukraine will last two years. The front line barely moves. Due to the sanctions and the failed invasion, discontent among the Russian population is increasing. Domestic tensions and protests are on the rise.

In that case, the business and financial elites would try to make a deal with Putin to declare a ‘victory’ such as ‘stand up against the West’, ‘don’t lose’, ‘defend the fatherland'”, predicts Mykhnenko. In this case, too, Putin should hand over the baton of power to a successor. In this scenario, Putin would have the greatest bargaining power. Ex-diplomat Bondarev said Putin could try to sell his mini-victories in Ukraine as big ones. (nad)

Source: Blick