Why Russia’s approval for Putin’s war is likely significantly lower than it was claimed South Africa’s president was acquitted in a money-theft affair

He was “shocked,” German news medium n-tv recently quoted Lew Gudkow as saying. Gudkov is director of Levada – the only independent polling station in Russia.

According to a recent poll by the institute among Russians, approval for Putin’s Ukraine war is still over 70 percent. The percentage of respondents who spoke out clearly against the war was around 10 percent.

Gudkov said he expected a “much sharper and more negative public reaction” to the war. Instead, the people had turned out to be “even more degenerate, even more submissive and passive.”

Not just yes or no

Russian political activist Aleksei Miniailo, on the other hand, recommends being more careful when assessing public opinion on the war. Under the title “Chroniki” (in German chronicles), he conducts his own surveys of the population together with sociologists. While Gudkov assumes that more than 70 percent approve of Putin’s war, Miniailo speaks of just under 40 percent.

How does such a different assessment come about? According to Miniailo, respondents in Russia often do not directly state their point of view due to security concerns. When you ask outright if anyone supports the “special military operation,” the answer is often yes, the activist told Russian-language exile medium Meduza. However, if you zoom in a bit deeper, it often looks more differentiated.

In its latest survey in February, nearly 60 percent said they supported the war. The value fluctuates regularly depending on how events develop.

Under the influence of economic problems, that figure fell from 64 percent last May to 55 percent in July. The lack of successes at the front or the expectation that the war will continue for a long time also lead to declining approval. At the start of the war, many observers, both in Russia and in the West, assumed that Ukraine had no chance in a war against Russia.

The announcement of a partial mobilization by President Putin in early September had an even greater influence on the approval of the war. Immediately thereafter, approval dropped to 52 percent.

In a second step, the survey asked the respondents additional questions to find out who only indicated that they provided support in order not to get themselves into trouble. For example, whether they would morally condemn or even prosecute people who disagree with the war.

The hard core is in the minority

The adjusted result of those who support the war is therefore much lower. 10 percent openly reject the war and almost 40 percent belong to the “hard core” of the supporters. The other 50 percent support the war only superficially or do not answer.

Looking at that roughly 50 percent, it’s important to remember that in Russia, not actively agreeing to the war is not considered neutral. Public rejection of war can even lead to criminal prosecution, as countless examples show.

It is therefore this convinced minority that dominates the public debate in Russia and thus gives the impression abroad of being a majority. The “Chronicles” show that the situation in Russia is more complicated than the survey results of the Levada Institute seem to indicate.

It is also striking how high the proportion of boys (18-34 years) is within the undecided group. It is said to have moved nearly 50 percent since the start of the war. And: No other age group rejects war as strongly as this one. It is she who has left the country en masse since the beginning of the war – and continues to do so. (aargauerzeitung.ch)