Why the Ukrainians, despite heavy losses, cannot give up the city of Bakhmut

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So no retreat after all: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (45) made it clear in a speech on Monday evening that his troops will not give up on the Donbass city of Bakhmut, which has been fighting for months. Selenski made the decision on the unanimous advice of his two top generals and key advisers.

Thousands of Ukrainians lost their lives in the Battle of Bachmut (which used to have a population of 70,000 and was about the size of St. Gallen). Hundreds are killed every day. The Russians surrounded the city on three sides. The situation for the Ukrainians seems almost hopeless. And yet their gory defense tactics make sense – for four reasons:

The comparison is brutal, but viewed from the point of view of pure war logic, it works: NATO estimates say five Russians die in Bakhmut for every Ukrainian soldier. From a Ukrainian point of view, the calculation works. The longer you defend the city, the more Russians die, the more material the opponent loses, the weaker he becomes. Selenski was therefore satisfied on Monday evening: “Bachmut has achieved good results.”

Nowhere on the 600 kilometer long war front in Donbass is the fighting more intense than in Bakhmut. In addition to new recruits, both sides also send elite fighters into battle. Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) in particular is in urgent need of the breakthrough. He has not been able to announce victory to his people for months. And: if the mass death of his troops (according to Ukrainian estimates, up to 900 Russian fighters die in Bakhmut every day) continues, the Kremlin boss will not be able to avoid a second wave of forced recruitment in the medium term. And that should further reduce popular support.

History repeats itself in Bakhmut: the Ukrainians managed to distract the Russians during the battle for the Donbass twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the middle of summer. They did not notice that the Ukrainians acted coolly away from the hot fighting. Shortly after the Ukrainian withdrawal from the two cities, they managed to recapture large areas around the city of Kharkiv. The weakened and totally unprepared Russians were literally trampled underfoot. In the case of Bachmut it could be similar. German war expert Ralph Thiele, 68, recently told Blick that Ukraine’s great sacrifice in Bakhmut made perfect sense “when the Ukrainians carry out a surprise attack elsewhere by tying down Russian forces”. The probable counter-offensive by the Ukrainians with new Western weapons in the spring should show whether it will succeed.

Yevgeny Prigozhin (61), head of the murderous Wagner mercenary band, took the lead with his troop in the battle for Bakhmut. At the same time, he railed against the Kremlin. He repeatedly complained about a lack of support (his fighters have no ammunition) and a lack of appreciation from Moscow (no senior officials want to receive Prigozhin’s envoys). Most recently, Prigozhin even threatened to withdraw his entire troops from his hiding place at Bakhmut, causing “the collapse of the Russian battle line”. The longer the battle for Bakhmut lasts and the more desperate the situation of his mercenaries becomes, the greater the dispute among the Russian leadership.

The bloody toll Ukraine has to pay for defending Bakhmut is enormous. Selensky’s words, addressed to the fighters in Bakhmut during his visit to the front shortly before Christmas, still echo today: “You are not just defending Bakhmut here, you are defending all of Ukraine.”

Source: Blick