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Tuesday was the day: the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed what had long been feared. Iran has highly enriched uranium. Particles have a purity of 83.7 percent – making them almost suitable for building a nuclear weapon. It would need a purity of 90 percent. In mid-February, the media, referring to diplomatic circles, already reported about the discovery in a nuclear facility in Fordow.

The Iranian regime is rapidly approaching a scenario that the West actually wanted to avoid with the 2015 nuclear deal: a nuclear power in the Middle East. But how great is the risk of building a nuclear weapon in Iran? An overview.

What is the nuclear deal?

The nuclear deal, also known as the Vienna Nuclear Accord or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), was concluded in 2015 between Germany, France, Great Britain, the US, Russia, China and Iran. The signing on July 14 was considered a good moment for diplomacy, as the states had previously spent 12 years fighting for a common solution.

In the end, it looked like this: Iran promised to limit its nuclear program so that it could only be used for research purposes. This included dismantling two-thirds of the centrifuges; Refrain from reprocessing spent fuel and not enriching uranium beyond 3.67 percent purity. This must be verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In return, Western sanctions against Iran were lifted.

The purpose of the pact was to prevent the Iranian regime from developing nuclear weapons. But in 2018, under then-President Donald Trump, the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement and imposed heavy sanctions on Iran. It was “the worst deal” of all time, Trump said at the time, accusing the “terrorist regime” in Tehran of failing to honor the deal. It responded in the summer of 2019 and reversed the restrictions. Since then, the regime has constantly violated the agreement: production of low-enriched uranium has been increased, the level of enrichment has been gradually increased, surveillance cameras have been dismantled.

After the discovery of the highly enriched particles, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, traveled to Tehran for talks. He can then announce at least a partial success: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has agreed to closer supervision of nuclear facilities. Cameras that were dismantled last year must now be put back into service. However, the details have yet to be clarified.

What is the status of the nuclear agreement (JCPoA)?

In the past, Germany and France have repeatedly attempted new negotiations. With the change of government in the US in 2021, US President Joe Biden also followed suit. Talks should resume. In the summer of 2022, the EU presented Tehran with a compromise proposal – but it was not signed.

Especially since the regime has used violence against demonstrators since September 2022, negotiations on the agreement have stalled. So far, however, no government has officially declared it over because of serious concerns about a nuclear escalation. If you ask the State Department if there are talks to resume negotiations, the answer is vague. When asked by t-online, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded with various links and excerpts from speeches. There doesn’t seem to be a clear “yes” or “no”.

There are currently no talks, a State Department spokesperson said in a statement late January. The focus is on supporting the people of Iran fighting for their freedom. On the other hand, “everyone agrees” that “a nuclear escalation must be prevented by all diplomatic means,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the Munich security conference in late February. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a similar statement during his trip to the Middle East in January, calling on the Iranian regime to find a diplomatic solution. But that seems hopeless. And not only that: the Iranian regime is closer than ever to a nuclear bomb.

Does Iran really want to build a nuclear bomb?

Step by step, the Iranian regime has increased the purity of its uranium and expanded its nuclear program. According to experts, the initial threatening gestures could soon become a reality. “As the regime continues to expand nuclear capabilities and sees the West as hesitant and weak, the Iranian leadership may decide to actually build nuclear weapons,” writes Ulrike Becker, chief of research and co-founder of the Mideast Freedom Forum Berlin (MFFB) . . , at the request of t-online.

Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a German-Iranian political scientist, also criticized the fact that neither the EU nor the US had found an appropriate means of pressuring Tehran to steer the regime off its course. “Under these circumstances, Iranian officials have gained confidence to threaten the West that all options are on the table,” Fathollah-Nejad told t-online.

He sees the protests of the Iranian population against the Islamic Republic as a further motivation. Here, too, most of the regime’s nuclear program is rejected. “If the regime faces ongoing challenges from within Iran, but little international pressure, a nuclear weapon could be a decisive factor in ensuring the long-term survival of the Islamic Republic, at least that is what some calculations in Tehran say. he writes. the expert. But the road ahead will be rocky, not least because of expected intensified Israeli sabotage.

How fast could Iran build a nuclear weapon?

The Iranian regime could produce not one, but several nuclear weapons in a very short time. At a hearing in the US Congress, a Pentagon representative recently voiced fears that the regime could build a nuclear warhead “in about twelve days,” as US media reported. According to David Albright, a physicist and weapons expert at the nongovernmental Institute for Science and International Security, it could even be several nuclear bombs in a very short time.

It took the regime just one month to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for four nuclear weapons, he wrote in a report in late December. Also, Tehran could have a large number of nuclear weapons produced on an industrial basis in a period of two years. Within weeks, Iran could become a nuclear power and dangerously alter the balance of power in the Middle East.

Can the West Prevent Tehran from Becoming a Nuclear Power?

The truth is: the West can only try to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb, but it is uncertain whether it will succeed. The relationship with the regime, which imprisons many European citizens and in some cases even wants to execute them and uses murderous violence against the population, is too tense. More than 500 people have been killed in the protests, according to the US-based non-governmental organization Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). Nearly 100 people have been executed by the regime since the beginning of this year, human rights organization Amnesty International reports. The EU had therefore imposed sanctions on the regime several times. But that continues in his violence. It also continues to supply drones to Russia, in support of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

Against this background, MFFB researcher Ulrike Becker considers it a mistake to continue to rely solely on the revival of the nuclear deal and diplomatic influence over the Iranian regime. The federal government must agree on a “Plan B” with its partners and Israel. “In particular, this includes exerting effective pressure on the regime and making it clear that the construction of nuclear weapons will result in drastic and serious measures by the international community, including military strikes against the nuclear facilities,” Becker said.

At the same time, she demands that the West “clearly sides with the freedom movement”. In return, the EU must comply with the protesters’ demand to put the Iranian regime’s Revolutionary Guards on the EU’s terror list. The EU had previously rejected this for legal reasons. For example, an EU country would first have to investigate a member of the Revolutionary Guard to get the organization on the terror list. But experts disagree: “Where there was a political will, there would be a way,” Walther Michl, a professor of public law and EU law at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, told ARD correspondent Natalie Amiri. He sees no legal obstacles.

In addition to a visa ban for government troops, inclusion on the EU terror list would also freeze the money of members of the Revolutionary Guards in the EU. Experts assume that the amount in the billions will be withdrawn from Tehran’s power apparatus for the time being. Since the Revolutionary Guards are also responsible for the Iran nuclear deal, this measure would serve its purpose, says Becker. In addition, she would send a clear signal to the freedom movement in Iran: “We stand by your side.”

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(t online)